ŁKS Łódź
vs
Podbeskidzie
I Liga prediction
Our model says: ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Podbeskidzie
The model makes it 49% ŁKS Łódź, 27% draw, 24% Podbeskidzie — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: ŁKS Łódź 1.66, Podbeskidzie 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ŁKS Łódź are 6th on 15 points from 10 games; Podbeskidzie are 15th on 11 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- ŁKS Łódź have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Ruch Chorzów.
- Podbeskidzie are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Last 6 meetings: ŁKS Łódź 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2023, ended ŁKS Łódź 2–1 Podbeskidzie.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ŁKS Łódź at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie
ŁKS Łódź
- L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Odra Opole28 August 2026
Podbeskidzie
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice29 August 2026
What these results say
- ŁKS Łódź failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ŁKS Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ŁKS Łódź had two goals or fewer.
- Podbeskidzie failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ŁKS Łódź | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ŁKS Łódź
Chance to finish in the top four · 26% today
Podbeskidzie
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie
- 21 April 2023ŁKS Łódź 2–1 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 18 September 2022Podbeskidzie 1–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 1 April 2022Podbeskidzie 1–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 18 September 2021ŁKS Łódź 1–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 29 March 2019ŁKS Łódź 3–0 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 19 September 2018Podbeskidzie 0–3 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ŁKS Łódź carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.24 for Podbeskidzie. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.02 for Podbeskidzie. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ŁKS Łódź rate 0.58 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Podbeskidzie rate 0.52 and 1.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ŁKS Łódź a 4.1% chance of the title and Podbeskidzie 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ŁKS Łódź the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź against 1.02 for Podbeskidzie. ŁKS Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.76 for Podbeskidzie.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ŁKS Łódź at home · Podbeskidzie away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: ŁKS Łódź 10, Podbeskidzie 10.
ŁKS Łódź score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Podbeskidzie have let in 3 there.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); ŁKS Łódź have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ŁKS Łódź
- at Warta Poznań26 Oct · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Polonia Warszawa2 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
- vs Stal Rzeszów8 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
- at Miedz Legnica21 Nov · I Ligawin 30%
- vs Lechia Gdansk28 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Podbeskidzie
- vs Stal Rzeszów25 Oct · I Ligawin 50%
- vs Warta Poznań31 Oct · I Ligawin 39%
- at Arka Gdynia7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Nieciecza21 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 Nov · I Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.