Polonia Bytom
vs
Chrobry Głogów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Polonia Bytom 1–0 Chrobry Głogów
The model makes it 44% Polonia Bytom, 28% draw, 28% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 1.54, Chrobry Głogów 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Polonia Bytom are 13th on 12 points from 10 games; Chrobry Głogów are 10th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Chrobry Głogów are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Last 2 meetings: Polonia Bytom 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 December 2025, ended Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry Głogów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polonia Bytom at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów
Polonia Bytom
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
- D0-0Podbeskidzie6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia30 August 2026
Chrobry Głogów
- L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
- W2-0Ruch Chorzów30 August 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Bytom had two goals or fewer.
- Chrobry Głogów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chrobry Głogów had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Polonia Bytom
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Chrobry Głogów
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów
- 7 December 2025Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 26 July 2025Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Polonia Bytom carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.26 for Chrobry Głogów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.14 for Chrobry Głogów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polonia Bytom rate 0.59 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chrobry Głogów rate 0.48 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chrobry Głogów, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polonia Bytom a 0.5% chance of the title and Chrobry Głogów 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Bytom the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Polonia Bytom against 1.14 for Chrobry Głogów. Polonia Bytom's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.6 for Chrobry Głogów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polonia Bytom at home · Chrobry Głogów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Polonia Bytom 10, Chrobry Głogów 10.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 2 there.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Polonia Bytom
- at Unia Skierniewice24 Oct · I Ligawin 34%
- at Chrobry Głogów29 Oct · Cupwin 28%
- vs Odra Opole2 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Lechia Gdansk8 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
- at Stal Rzeszów21 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
Chrobry Głogów
- at Stal Mielec24 Oct · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Polonia Bytom29 Oct · Cupwin 44%
- vs Arka Gdynia3 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- at Nieciecza7 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice21 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.