Warta Poznań
vs
Unia Skierniewice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Warta Poznań 2–1 Unia Skierniewice
The model makes it 57% Warta Poznań, 23% draw, 20% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Warta Poznań 2.13, Unia Skierniewice 1.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Warta Poznań: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Warta Poznań are 5th on 15 points from 10 games; Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 11 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Warta Poznań have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stal Mielec.
- Unia Skierniewice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Nieciecza.
- Last 2 meetings: Unia Skierniewice 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 November 2025, ended Warta Poznań 0–2 Unia Skierniewice.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Warta Poznań at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
Warta Poznań
- L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Miedz Legnica30 August 2026
Unia Skierniewice
- D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów28 August 2026
What these results say
- Warta Poznań scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Warta Poznań conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Warta Poznań had three goals or more.
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warta Poznań | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Warta Poznań
Chance to finish in the top four · 38% today
Unia Skierniewice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 44% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Unia Skierniewice
- 22 November 2025Warta Poznań 0–2 Unia SkierniewiceII Liga - East
- 27 July 2025Unia Skierniewice 2–1 Warta PoznańII Liga - East
The two sides
Warta Poznań carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.15 for Unia Skierniewice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Warta Poznań and 1.07 for Unia Skierniewice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Warta Poznań rate 0.65 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Unia Skierniewice rate 0.50 and 2.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Warta Poznań a 6.7% chance of the title and Unia Skierniewice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Warta Poznań the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Warta Poznań against 1.07 for Unia Skierniewice. Warta Poznań's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.01 for Unia Skierniewice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Warta Poznań at home · Unia Skierniewice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Warta Poznań 10, Unia Skierniewice 10.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 3 there.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Warta Poznań
- vs ŁKS Łódź26 Oct · I Ligawin 46%
- at Podbeskidzie31 Oct · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Polonia Warszawa7 Nov · I Ligawin 48%
- at Ruch Chorzów21 Nov · I Ligawin 29%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce28 Nov · I Ligawin 53%
Unia Skierniewice
- vs Polonia Bytom24 Oct · I Ligawin 40%
- at Lechia Gdansk31 Oct · I Ligawin 14%
- at Odra Opole6 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce21 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- at Chrobry Głogów28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.