Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 1-3 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Pogoń Siedlce, 32% draw, 33% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pogoń Siedlce 1.05, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.99.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Polish I Liga predictions
Model insights: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogoń Siedlce at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Pogoń Siedlce
- L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
- W2-0Stal Mielec29 August 2026
Puszcza Niepołomice
- L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pogoń Siedlce had two goals or fewer.
- Puszcza Niepołomice failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice
- 6 March 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 3–0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 24 August 2025Pogoń Siedlce 0–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.05 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.99 for Puszcza Niepołomice; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Gjoni 48' (Puszcza Niepołomice), M. Cholewiak 67' (Puszcza Niepołomice), M. Strajnar 76' (Puszcza Niepołomice), O. Kocar 78' (Pogoń Siedlce).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogoń Siedlce the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce against 0.99 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Pogoń Siedlce's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.66 for Puszcza Niepołomice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.