ML Vitebsk
vs
Torpedo Zhodino
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: ML Vitebsk 2-0 Torpedo Zhodino.
Before kick-off the model made it 69% ML Vitebsk, 19% draw, 12% Torpedo Zhodino — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: ML Vitebsk 2.50, Torpedo Zhodino 0.79.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Model insights: ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ML Vitebsk at 69% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
Line-ups
- 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
- 22Y. SkibskiyD
- 20Z. VolkovD
- 6K. GomanovD
- 45I. MoskalenchikD
- 8S. GnakaM
- 15V. BocherovM
- 27A. MesarovićM
- 10D. CleoniseF
- 80A. KontsevoyF
- 12R. BosićF
- 30Pavel ShcherbachenyaG
- 3N. BaranokD
- 5M. MohammadiD
- 7T. IvanovF
- 4A. OdeM
- 55V. GromykoM
- 23S. BalanovichD
- 90I. GrudkoF
- 99M. BulanovF
- 25T. YurasovG
- 30V. PobudeyD
- 3Yevhen ChagovetsD
- 13A. ZaleskiyD
- 96V. MelkoD
- 68D. ZhulpaM
- 6K. PremudrovM
- 7A. BykovM
- 11A. LomovitskiyF
- 89A. FrantsuzovF
- 10T. SharkovskiyF
- 47V. NalivaykoF
- 28D. YusovF
- 9G. PetrosyanF
- 27M. GaevoyM
- 14M. LadutkoM
- 66A. AgeevD
- 4V. ManaevD
- 99M. MaslennikovG
- 20G. MartjanovD
Form going into ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
ML Vitebsk
- W5-1away to FC Gomel11 October 2026
- W5-1Arsenal Dzerzhinsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Dnepr Mogilev13 September 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Minsk6 September 2026
Torpedo Zhodino
- W1-0away to FC Minsk10 October 2026
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
- L1-2FC Gomel5 September 2026
What these results say
- ML Vitebsk went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- ML Vitebsk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- ML Vitebsk conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 22 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 47 | 18 | +29 | 47 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: ML Vitebsk vs Torpedo Zhodino
- 21 March 2026Torpedo Zhodino 0–1 ML VitebskPremier League
- 13 September 2025ML Vitebsk 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 8 May 2025ML Vitebsk 0–1 Torpedo ZhodinoCoppa
- 27 April 2025Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 ML VitebskPremier League
- 16 April 2025Torpedo Zhodino 0–0 ML VitebskCoppa
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.50 goals for ML Vitebsk and 0.79 for Torpedo Zhodino; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Denilho Cleonise 38' (ML Vitebsk), Artem Kontsevoy 73' (ML Vitebsk).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ML Vitebsk the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for ML Vitebsk against 0.79 for Torpedo Zhodino. ML Vitebsk's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.05 for Torpedo Zhodino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.