Petrojet
vs
Wadi Degla
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Petrojet 2-2 Wadi Degla.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Petrojet, 28% draw, 37% Wadi Degla — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Petrojet 1.36, Wadi Degla 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Model insights: Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wadi Degla at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Omar SalahG
- 4Mahmoud Shedid KenawiD
- 25Barakat HaggagD
- 40Youssef Abdel-TawabD
- 3Islam AbdallahD
- 11Mohamed Ibrahim DodoM
- 17Adham HamedM
- 8Mohamed OsmanM
- 9Badr MoussaM
- 19Mostafa El BadryF
- 15Ahmed BahbahF
- 2A. BahM
- 22Omar DiyaaF
- 7Karim El DeebD
- 12A. HamawyM
- 13F. M. KouablanF
- 21A. LiadiF
- 30G. OkwaraF
- 16Abdel Kafi RagabG
- 29Ahmed YassinD
- 1Amr HossamG
- 23Ahmed AymanD
- 24Mohamed Ragab El SafiD
- 3Omar AdlyD
- 21Ahmed RedaD
- 25Ibrahim El BahnasiM
- 8Ahmed ScholesM
- 10Mahmoud DiastyM
- 14Mohamed Abdel AatiM
- 27Ahmed RefaatM
- 17H. HassanF
- 40Ahmed AbdinD
- 11Mohamed AbdelrahimF
- 20Mohamed JuhaynaM
- 6Kamal Abou ElfetouhD
- 4Islam Adel KanuM
- 22ZizoF
- 9F. BoliF
- 34M. KaandorpM
- 13Z. SeyamG
Form going into Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
Petrojet
- W2-1away to El Gouna FC16 September 2026
- W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zamalek SC31 August 2026
- L2-3El Geish26 August 2026
Wadi Degla
- L0-2El Mokawloon15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Olympic El Qanah1 September 2026
- W3-1away to Enppi28 August 2026
What these results say
- Petrojet scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Petrojet conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Petrojet had three goals or more.
- Wadi Degla failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wadi Degla conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Petrojet vs Wadi Degla
- 8 May 2026Petrojet 2–2 Wadi DeglaPremier League
- 11 December 2025Wadi Degla 1–2 PetrojetLeague Cup
- 27 November 2025Petrojet 1–0 Wadi DeglaCup
- 20 August 2025Wadi Degla 0–1 PetrojetPremier League
- 29 April 2024Petrojet 3–1 Wadi DeglaSecond League
- 12 November 2023Wadi Degla 1–1 PetrojetSecond League
Leading scorers: Petrojet and Wadi Degla
Petrojet
GoalsAssists
- Mostafa El Badry31
- Ahmed Bahbah31
Wadi Degla
GoalsAssists
- S. Touka20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.36 goals for Petrojet and 1.43 for Wadi Degla; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mahmoud Diasty 6' (Wadi Degla), Ibrahim Mohamed El Bahnasi 45' (Wadi Degla), Ahmed Abdel Mawgod 59' (Petrojet), F. Kouablan 66' (Petrojet).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wadi Degla the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Petrojet against 1.43 for Wadi Degla. Petrojet's attack/defence rating is 0.75/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.61 for Wadi Degla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.