League Phase - 2 · 13 October 2026, 07:45 UTC

Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Referee: Ahmad Al Ali
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Newcastle Jets 1-3 Gamba Osaka.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Newcastle Jets, 25% draw, 35% Gamba Osaka — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 1.87, Gamba Osaka 1.72.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka

70%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 9%2-1 8%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newcastle Jets at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Newcastle Jets0%Draw1%Gamba Osaka99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nikos Vergos
32'
40'
⚽Yusei Toshidaassist: Eli Adams
🔁Xavier Bertoncelloout: Joe Lolley
56'
66'
Tokuma Suzuki
🔁Will Dobsonout: Ethan Debono
67'
🔁Nikos Vergosout: Patrick Wood
68'
70'
🔁Yusei Toshidaout: Deniz Hümmet
70'
🔁Ryotaro Meshinoout: Welton
71'
•Welton
73'
⚽Deniz Hümmetassist: Eli Adams
79'
🔁Tokuma Suzukiout: Rin Mito
🔁Zach Cloughout: Julian Recchia
81'
Patrick Wood
86'
86'
⚽Weltonassist: Shuto Abe
Ethan Debono
88'
90+2'
🔁Shuto Abeout: Shu Kurata
90+2'
🔁Issam Jebaliout: Takashi Usami
90+3'
Takeru Kishimoto

Match stats — Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka

38%Possession62%
9Shots24
3On target7
5Corners6
0.88xG2.37

Goals against chances

Newcastle Jets1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gamba Osaka3 from 2.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Newcastle Jets 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. DelianovG
  • 22J. BertolissioD
  • 5J. ShaughnessyD
  • 39T. AquilinaD
  • 23D. WilmeringD
  • 14M. BurgessM
  • 28W. DobsonM
  • 6Z. SchreiberM
  • 10Z. CloughM
  • 43X. BertoncelloM
  • 9N. VergosF
Substitutes
  • 11J. LolleyF
  • 52Nicholas BadolatoM
  • 61Angus ReidD
  • 27Julian RecchiaM
  • 64Jesse HillF
  • 65Kaiden WalsheD
  • 24A. NunesM
  • 40J. BaylisG
  • 54J. GoodwinF
Coach: Mark Milligan
Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1
  • 22J. IchimoriG
  • 15T. KishimotoD
  • 4S. NakataniD
  • 2S. FukuokaD
  • 47S. NakanoD
  • 13S. AbeM
  • 16T. SuzukiM
  • 20E. AdamsM
  • 11I. JebaliM
  • 8R. MeshinoM
  • 41Y. ToshidaF
Substitutes
  • 21R. HatsuseD
  • 1M. HigashiguchiG
  • 23D. HümmetF
  • 10S. KurataM
  • 27R. MitoM
  • 67S. SasakiD
  • 7T. UsamiF
  • 97Welton FelipeF
  • 17R. YamashitaF
Coach: Tomokazu Myojin

Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka

Newcastle Jets

  • L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026

Gamba Osaka

  • W4-1Công An Nhân Dân15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Newcastle Jets2002210-80
2Gamba Osaka220072+56

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Newcastle Jets vs Gamba Osaka

  • 13 October 2026Newcastle Jets 1–3 Gamba OsakaAFC Champions League Elite

Leading scorers: Newcastle Jets and Gamba Osaka

Newcastle Jets

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Gamba Osaka

GoalsAssists

  • T. Usami20
  • Y. Toshida20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.87 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.72 for Gamba Osaka; the game produced 1 and 3.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Nikos Vergos 32' (Newcastle Jets), Yusei Toshida 40' (Gamba Osaka), Deniz Hümmet 73' (Gamba Osaka), Welton 86' (Gamba Osaka).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Newcastle Jets against 1.72 for Gamba Osaka. Newcastle Jets's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.45 for Gamba Osaka.