SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Daejeon Citizen
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% SHANGHAI SIPG, 25% draw, 38% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.63, Daejeon Citizen 1.65.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Yan JunlingG
- 5Zhang LinpengD
- 44Miguel CamposD
- 13Wei ZhenD
- 22Xi Yang AlexD
- 21Óscar MelendoM
- 16Jaume GrauM
- 10Mateus VitalM
- 19Wang Zhen'aoD
- 7Wu LeiF
- 17P. AmpemF
- 47Jiwen KuaiM
- 45LeonardoF
- 8K. AziangbeM
- 40Yusup UmidjanD
- 33Liu ZhurunF
- 6Zhang YuanM
- 32Li ShuaiD
- 28Yue XinD
- 23Fu HuanD
- 25Lee Jun-SeoG
- 6Kang Yun-SungD
- 45Ha Chang-RaeD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 2Park Kyu-HyunD
- 44Lee Soon-MinM
- 30Kim Bong-SooM
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeF
- 77João VictorF
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
- 9Diogo de OliveiraF
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 3Kim Min-DukD
- 4Jo Seong-KwonD
- 7M. IshidaF
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 11Um Won-SangF
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 14Kim Jun-BumM
- 17G. LudwigsonF
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
- W6-4away to Ratchaburi15 September 2026
Daejeon Citizen
- W1-0Kyoto Sanga15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Daejeon Citizen
- 13 October 2026SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Daejeon CitizenAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Daejeon Citizen
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- P. Ampem40
- Wu Lei11
- Jaume Grau11
Daejeon Citizen
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.63 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.65 for Daejeon Citizen; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Prince Ampem 49' (SHANGHAI SIPG), Diogo Oliveira 54' (Daejeon Citizen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.65 for Daejeon Citizen. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.49 for Daejeon Citizen.