Buriram United
vs
Beijing Guoan
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Buriram United 0-1 Beijing Guoan.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Buriram United, 27% draw, 34% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Buriram United 1.50, Beijing Guoan 1.36.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Buriram United at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13N. EtheridgeG
- 17Lucas AhijadoD
- 5NathanD
- 6C. GoodD
- 31CajuF
- 20Toni MoyaM
- 27P. SookjitthammakulM
- 9S. ChaidedF
- 8PaulinhoM
- 10Sebas MoyanoF
- 7BissoliF
- 18V. SavićevićM
- 99A. TudorieF
- 55T. BunmathanD
- 40Eduardo ManchaD
- 34C. BootpromG
- 33T. ChotmuangpakM
- 30S. SchimmerF
- 19K. SchindlerF
- 2S. HaiprakhonD
- 34Hou SenG
- 21Yue Tze NamD
- 27Wang GangD
- 5Guilherme RamosD
- 26Bai YangD
- 28J. DudziakD
- 8A. KonteM
- 23DawhanM
- 10Zhang XizheM
- 20B. NkololoF
- 77C. AkoloF
- 4Li LeiD
- 6Chi ZhongguoM
- 7SerginhoM
- 11Lin LiangmingF
- 17Yang LiyuF
- 22Han JiaqiG
- 24Abduhamit AbdugheniD
- 29Fábio AbreuF
- 30Fan ShuangjieD
Form going into Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
Buriram United
- D1-1away to Johor Darul Takzim FC15 September 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W3-1Pohang Steelers15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Buriram United vs Beijing Guoan
- 13 October 2026Buriram United 0–1 Beijing GuoanAFC Champions League Elite
- 24 April 2019Beijing Guoan 2–0 Buriram UnitedAFC Champions League
- 9 April 2019Buriram United 1–3 Beijing GuoanAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Buriram United and Beijing Guoan
Buriram United
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Xizhe11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.50 goals for Buriram United and 1.36 for Beijing Guoan; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Fabio Abreu 79' (Beijing Guoan).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Buriram United the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Buriram United against 1.36 for Beijing Guoan. Buriram United's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.44 for Beijing Guoan.