Al Sadd
vs
Al-Hilal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al Sadd 0-2 Al-Hilal.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Al Sadd, 20% draw, 57% Al-Hilal — fair odds of 4.35, 5.00 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Al Sadd 1.61, Al-Hilal 2.75.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Hilal at 57% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Meshaal BarshamG
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD
- 26A. RomagnoliD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 80A. SoriaM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 23Hashim AliM
- 9Roberto FirminoM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 17Mohamed Al ManaiF
- 31Yousef Abdulla BaliadehG
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF
- 1Saad Al SheebG
- 20Y. AtalD
- 4M. CamaraM
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 11GiovaniF
- 5Tarek SalmanD
- 37Y. BounouG
- 2Mohammed Mater Mohsin MahzariD
- 3K. KoulibalyD
- 4Yusuf AkçiçekD
- 24Moteb Al HarbiD
- 22S. Milinković-SavićM
- 8Rúben NevesM
- 28Mohamed KannoM
- 27Sultan MandashF
- 11O. WatkinsF
- 7Gabriel MartinelliF
- 18Murad Al HawsawiM
- 33Mohammed Al OwaisG
- 73Mohamed Al-SarnukhD
- 96Suhayb Al ZaidM
- 70Saïmon BouabréM
- 72S. DahalF
- 19T. HernándezD
- 78Ali LajamiD
- 75M. MeïtéF
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
Al Sadd
- L0-3away to Esteghlal FC14 September 2026
Al-Hilal
- W2-1Al-Gharafa15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal
- 13 October 2026Al Sadd 0–2 Al-HilalAFC Champions League Elite
- 13 April 2026Al-Hilal 3–3 Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite
- 21 October 2025Al-Hilal 3–1 Al SaddAFC Champions League Elite
- 26 November 2024Al Sadd 1–1 Al-HilalAFC Champions League Elite
- 30 July 2023Al-Hilal 2–3 Al SaddArab Club Champions Cup
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Hilal
Al Sadd
No league goals yet this season.
Al-Hilal
GoalsAssists
- Rúben Neves21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.61 goals for Al Sadd and 2.75 for Al-Hilal; the game produced 0 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ollie Watkins 40' (Al-Hilal), Rúben Neves 65' (Al-Hilal).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Hilal the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al Sadd against 2.75 for Al-Hilal. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.89 for Al-Hilal.