Al-Ittihad
vs
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Ittihad 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Al-Ittihad, 26% draw, 27% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Ittihad 1.76, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ittihad at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. RajkovićG
- 32Ahmed Al JulaydanD
- 2Danilo PereiraD
- 4J. ŠimićD
- 25F. AbdiD
- 5R. RiosM
- 30D. LopyM
- 99G. IlenikhenaM
- 23G. WijnaldumM
- 34S. BergwijnM
- 21Y. En-NesyriF
- 50Mohammed Al AbsiG
- 8Mukhtar AliM
- 88Osama Al MermeshG
- 6Saad Al MosaD
- 22Marwan Al SahafiF
- 29Farhah Al ShamraniM
- 13Muhannad Al ShanqitiD
- 11Saleh Al ShehriF
- 10H. AouarM
- 33Matheus DonelliG
- 3Igor GomesD
- 4W. FaesD
- 13RenanD
- 6S. EzatolahiM
- 24J. MarkeloM
- 80Breno CascardoM
- 88N. MaksimovićM
- 31Kauan SantosM
- 20S. AzmounF
- 77Guilherme BalaF
- 16RikelmeD
- 19MateusãoF
- 79João MarceloF
- 5E. IralaM
- 9R. GhandipourF
- 44Jorge FernandesD
- 21Sultan AdilF
- 1Rakaan WaleedG
- 26Eid Khamis Al-NuaimiM
Form going into Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Ittihad
- D1-1away to Al Shamal14 September 2026
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- W1-0Tractor Sazi14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al-Ittihad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Ittihad vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 13 October 2026Al-Ittihad 1–2 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League Elite
- 30 September 2025Al-Ittihad 0–1 Shabab Al Ahli DubaiAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Al-Ittihad and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Al-Ittihad
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
GoalsAssists
- S. Azmoun20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for Al-Ittihad and 1.21 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Sardar Azmoun 7' (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Sardar Azmoun 16' (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Richard Ríos Montoya 66' (Al-Ittihad).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ittihad the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al-Ittihad against 1.21 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Al-Ittihad's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.17 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.