League Phase - 2 · 13 October 2026, 12:15 UTC

Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Hang Day Stadium, Hanoi
Referee: Mooud Bonyadifard
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Công An Nhân Dân 0-1 Kashima.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Công An Nhân Dân, 27% draw, 48% Kashima — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Công An Nhân Dân 1.10, Kashima 1.69.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima

55%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%0-1 10%1-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kashima at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Stefan Mauk
24'
24'
Matheus Bueno
45'
🔁Matheus Buenoout: Gaku Shibasaki
Nguyen Quang Hai
55'
🔁Le Pham Thanh Longout: Damià Sabater Tous
56'
🔁Brayan Pereaout: Alan Grafite
56'
61'
⚽Leygley Adou Minh (OG)
63'
🔁José Élber Pimentel da Silvaout: Aleksandar Čavrić
Doan Van Hau
63'
🔁Stefan Maukout: Dinh Thanh Binh
72'
🔁Nguyen Quang Haiout: Hoang Van Toan
73'
77'
🔁Ryoya Ogawaout: Sho Omori
77'
🔁Léo Cearáout: Minato Yoshida
🔁Bui Hoang Viet Anhout: Phan Ngoc Tin
78'
82'
🔁Yuma Suzukiout: Homare Tokuda

Match stats — Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima

49%Possession51%
17Shots10
4On target1
4Corners1
0.79xG0.56

Goals against chances

Công An Nhân Dân0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth
Kashima1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Công An Nhân Dân 4-1-3-2
  • 1F. NguyenG
  • 68Bùi Hoàng Việt AnhD
  • 38A. LeygleyD
  • 5Đoàn Văn HậuD
  • 7J. PendantD
  • 6S. MaukM
  • 19Nguyễn Quang HảiM
  • 11Lê Phạm Thành LongM
  • 9Nguyen Dinh BacM
  • 90B. PereaF
  • 10Léo ArturF
Substitutes
  • 72Alan GrafiteF
  • 15Bui Xuan ThinhM
  • 18Đinh Thanh BìnhF
  • 12Hoang Van ToanD
  • 4Phan Ngọc TínD
  • 14Damià SabaterM
  • 23Vu Thanh VinhG
Coach: Alexandré Pölking
Kashima 4-4-2
  • 1T. HayakawaG
  • 23K. TsukuiD
  • 55N. UedaD
  • 3Kim Tae-HyeonD
  • 7R. OgawaD
  • 27Y. MatsumuraM
  • 6K. MisaoM
  • 8Matheus BuenoM
  • 17ÉlberM
  • 40Y. SuzukiF
  • 9Léo CearáF
Substitutes
  • 30M. YoshidaF
  • 21T. YamadaG
  • 34H. TokudaF
  • 10G. ShibasakiM
  • 5I. SekigawaD
  • 19S. OmoriD
  • 28Y. OkawaD
  • 35A. MotosunaD
  • 29Y. KajikawaG
Coach: T. Oniki

Form going into Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima

Công An Nhân Dân

  • L1-4away to Gamba Osaka15 September 2026

Kashima

  • W7-1Newcastle Jets15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Công An Nhân Dân200215-40
1Kashima220081+76

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Công An Nhân Dân vs Kashima

  • 13 October 2026Công An Nhân Dân 0–1 KashimaAFC Champions League Elite

Leading scorers: Công An Nhân Dân and Kashima

Công An Nhân Dân

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Kashima

GoalsAssists

  • A. Čavrić30
  • H. Tokuda21

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.10 goals for Công An Nhân Dân and 1.69 for Kashima; the game produced 0 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Leygley Adou Minh 61' (Kashima).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Kashima the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Công An Nhân Dân against 1.69 for Kashima. Công An Nhân Dân's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.02 for Kashima.