Pohang Steelers
vs
Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Pohang Steelers 0-2 Johor Darul Takzim FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Pohang Steelers, 26% draw, 36% Johor Darul Takzim FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 1.67, Johor Darul Takzim FC 1.60.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pohang Steelers at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Hong Seong-MinG
- 13Kang Min-JunD
- 20Park Chan-YongD
- 4Jeon Min-GwangD
- 77WandersonD
- 40Ki Sung-YuengM
- 11Juninho RochaM
- 16Kim Dong-JinM
- 31K. NishiyaM
- 25Jorge LuizM
- 10J. TranziskaF
- 18Cho Sang-HyeokF
- 9An Jae-JunF
- 21Hwang In-JaeG
- 12Hwang Jae-HwanF
- 5Jin Si-wooD
- 37Jung Han-MinF
- 36H. KimM
- 8Kim Seung-HoM
- 3Ye-Sung KimD
- 16Ahmad Syihan HazmiG
- 29Carlos AkapoD
- 81K. MedinaD
- 5Cristián GlauderD
- 33J. SilvaD
- 21D. PetrovičM
- 28Nacho MéndezM
- 24Óscar ArribasM
- 10Arif Aiman HanapiM
- 95Marcos GuilhermeM
- 7S. ZahediF
- 58Andoni ZubiaurreG
- 19StoichkovF
- 77Matías NahuelF
- 11JairoF
- 30Natxo InsaM
- 4Afiq FazailM
- 20Dani BoltD
- 44M. CuestaD
- 9BérgsonF
Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
Pohang Steelers
- L1-3away to Beijing Guoan15 September 2026
Johor Darul Takzim FC
- D1-1Buriram United15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
- 13 October 2026Pohang Steelers 0–2 Johor Darul Takzim FCAFC Champions League Elite
- 18 February 2025Johor Darul Takzim FC 5–2 Pohang SteelersAFC Champions League Elite
- 1 July 2021Johor Darul Takzim FC 0–2 Pohang SteelersAFC Champions League
- 28 June 2021Pohang Steelers 4–1 Johor Darul Takzim FCAFC Champions League
Leading scorers: Pohang Steelers and Johor Darul Takzim FC
Pohang Steelers
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Johor Darul Takzim FC
GoalsAssists
- Marcos Guilherme21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.60 for Johor Darul Takzim FC; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marcos Guilherme 49' (Johor Darul Takzim FC), Marcos Guilherme 89' (Johor Darul Takzim FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pohang Steelers the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 1.60 for Johor Darul Takzim FC. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.76 for Johor Darul Takzim FC.