Kyoto Sanga
vs
Ratchaburi
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Kyoto Sanga 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Kyoto Sanga, 21% draw, 19% Ratchaburi — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga 2.58, Ratchaburi 1.25.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More AFC Champions League Elite predictions
Model insights: Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kyoto Sanga at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 90HallsG
- 5H. TawiahD
- 43WevertonD
- 62T. ShichiD
- 26R. KatoM
- 14ThiagoM
- 25Yoon Sung-JunM
- 44K. SatoM
- 77H. AraiF
- 38EvertonF
- 11Marco TúlioF
- 50Y. SuzukiD
- 10S. FukuokaM
- 40Y. IshidaD
- 21K. KakoiG
- 18T. MatsudaM
- 15K. NagataD
- 48R. NakanoM
- 1G. OtaG
- 19David Da Silva CostaF
- 99K. PhatomakkakulG
- 27J. CurranD
- 3Tarek AggounD
- 44Pablo InsuaD
- 31S. van WermeskerkenD
- 16Roque MesaM
- 8T. SuengchitthawonM
- 92Njiva RakotoharimalalaM
- 6TanaM
- 21E. PanyaM
- 9Bruno MendesF
- 97U. WongmeemaG
- 5D. TingD
- 15A. PromrakD
- 88C. PoomkaewM
- 20Sanchai NontasilaD
- 28T. LimwanasathianM
- 48S. AllardiceM
Form going into Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
Kyoto Sanga
- L0-1away to Daejeon Citizen15 September 2026
Ratchaburi
- L4-6SHANGHAI SIPG15 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kyoto Sanga vs Ratchaburi
- 13 October 2026Kyoto Sanga 1–0 RatchaburiAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Kyoto Sanga and Ratchaburi
Kyoto Sanga
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Ratchaburi
GoalsAssists
- Martin Njiva Rakotoharimalala31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.58 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.25 for Ratchaburi; the game produced 1 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Temma Matsuda 88' (Kyoto Sanga).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kyoto Sanga the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga against 1.25 for Ratchaburi. Kyoto Sanga's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.12 for Ratchaburi.