Al Ittihad Alexandria
vs
El Gouna FC
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Al Ittihad Alexandria 2-1 El Gouna FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 33% draw, 27% El Gouna FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.07, El Gouna FC 0.79.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Model insights: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ittihad Alexandria at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sobhi SolimanG
- 24Momen AwadD
- 7Mohamed Mostafa MidoD
- 5Mostafa IbrahimD
- 30K. MosaadD
- 23I. SaviourM
- 14Mohamed FakhryM
- 80Joseph ArumalaM
- 8Mohamed ToniM
- 22Nour AlaaM
- 10Hossam HassanF
- 4Islam AbdallahD
- 31Ali El GabryG
- 25Mahmoud EmadM
- 21Ahmed HamdiM
- 77A. NagyM
- 18J. EbukaF
- 44K. SemakulaD
- 11Youssry WahidF
- 20Mazen OsamaD
- 16Eslam RishaG
- 2Abdel Gawad TaalabD
- 5Saber El ShimiD
- 28M. MetaweaD
- 44Alpha TurayD
- 14Nour El SayedM
- 42M. EgbembaM
- 20Ahmed BelyaM
- 74Ziad El ShayatM
- 70Ahmed GamalM
- 29T. OjoF
- 30Alaa ShaabanF
- 90W. Parfait TeukeuM
- 22Mohamed RedaM
- 9Marwan MohsenF
- 34M. EssamD
- 24Ali El ZahdiF
- 13Omar El GazarD
- 4Islam Abou SlemmaM
- 99Badreldin WalidG
Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
- W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
- L1-3Ceramica Cleopatra28 August 2026
El Gouna FC
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
- L0-1El Mokawloon2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah28 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- El Gouna FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for El Gouna FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Gouna FC
- 4 April 2026El Gouna FC 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 23 November 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 11 March 2025El Gouna FC 2–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 17 February 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Gouna FCPremier League
- 27 April 2024El Gouna FC 2–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 6 October 2023Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–2 El Gouna FCPremier League
Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Gouna FC
Al Ittihad Alexandria
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Hassan30
El Gouna FC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.07 goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria and 0.79 for El Gouna FC; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mohamed Mido Mostafa 8' (El Gouna FC), Hossam Hassan 10' (Al Ittihad Alexandria), Mohamed Toni 60' (Al Ittihad Alexandria).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ittihad Alexandria the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria against 0.79 for El Gouna FC. Al Ittihad Alexandria's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.53 for El Gouna FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.