Abu Qair Semad
vs
Asyut Petrol
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Abu Qair Semad 1-2 Asyut Petrol.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Abu Qair Semad, 34% draw, 36% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 3.33, 2.94 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Abu Qair Semad 0.83, Asyut Petrol 0.97.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Model insights: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Asyut Petrol at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Mohamed Zakaria ShikaG
- 6M. AlaaD
- 20Ahmed AwadD
- 4M. DabashD
- 27Ahmed DaheshD
- 11Mostafa RahimM
- 15O. IbrahimM
- 14R. MiladM
- 23F. AkemM
- 29Ali HusseinF
- 22Ahmed KhaledF
- 13Glid OtangaM
- 8E. HamdiM
- 1M. GeneshG
- 9Mahmoud Abou GoudaF
- 7Mohamed AshrafM
- 38Mohamed CamaraF
- 24A. El GazarD
- 30Y. HamdiM
- 3Gaber KamelD
- 25A. AhmedG
- 5Mahmoud AlaaD
- 20A. ShokryD
- 24Mahmoud AlaaD
- 30Abdelrahman MedhatM
- 18Mohamed HeshaM
- 19I. AbbasM
- 26A. R. Al KhamisiM
- 7Ahmed YounesM
- 9M. EidF
- 35C. C. BodneF
- 34K. Abdel AalD
- 11Mostafa SadafaF
- 6Ahmed MagdyD
- 21F. Abu BakrM
- 23Ahmed GamalG
- 8Fathy GamalF
- 13Ismail AshrafF
- 32Karim KamelM
- 38Joshua EgagyF
Form going into Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
Abu Qair Semad
- L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria2 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pyramids FC27 August 2026
Asyut Petrol
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Smouha SC26 August 2026
What these results say
- Abu Qair Semad did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- Abu Qair Semad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Asyut Petrol did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Asyut Petrol failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Asyut Petrol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Abu Qair Semad vs Asyut Petrol
- 15 January 2026Abu Qair Semad 1–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
- 30 August 2025Asyut Petrol 0–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 30 April 2025Asyut Petrol 1–2 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 23 December 2024Abu Qair Semad 0–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League
- 27 February 2024Asyut Petrol 1–1 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
- 18 December 2023Asyut Petrol 2–1 Abu Qair SemadSecond League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.83 goals for Abu Qair Semad and 0.97 for Asyut Petrol; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mohamed Eid 66' (Asyut Petrol), Fathy Gamal 83' (Asyut Petrol), Ali Hussein 90' (Abu Qair Semad).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Asyut Petrol the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Abu Qair Semad against 0.97 for Asyut Petrol. Abu Qair Semad's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.67 for Asyut Petrol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.