National Bank of Egypt
vs
El Geish
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: National Bank of Egypt 3-0 El Geish.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% National Bank of Egypt, 30% draw, 25% El Geish — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: National Bank of Egypt 1.32, El Geish 0.84.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Model insights: National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
Has the model earned this number?
It puts National Bank of Egypt at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27Abdel Aziz El BaloutiG
- 2Mohamed NasrD
- 20Amir MedhatD
- 6Mahmoud El GazzarD
- 12Ahmed MetebD
- 17Mohamed NaserM
- 7Hisham SalehM
- 14Ali HamdyM
- 22Anderson CearáM
- 18K. HamedM
- 29Ahmed Yasser RayanF
- 30Y. AnnorF
- 1Ahmed Sobhi AfifiG
- 13Khaled ShefoD
- 10Sayed Abdallah SikaF
- 25Mohamed AshrafM
- 19S. BouchamaM
- 24Mostafa AdelM
- 70Mohamed RedaF
- 11Mostafa ShalabyM
- 1Omar RadwanG
- 8Ahmed Abdel Rahman ZolaD
- 24Z. MohamedD
- 4Mohamed FathallahD
- 3Amro TarekD
- 30Mohamed AtefM
- 25Ahmed TarekM
- 17Walid BenbellaM
- 11Karim TarekM
- 12Islam MoharebF
- 33Ayman Amir AbdelazizF
- 6Khaled StouhiD
- 21Khaled Abo ZiadaF
- 10Mohamed HanyF
- 18Emad El SayedG
- 22Mostafa KhawagaM
- 13Komlavi KomiF
- 2Momen MahmoudD
- 7Ragab OmranM
- 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
Form going into National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
National Bank of Egypt
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra14 September 2026
- W3-1Ghazl El Mehalla7 September 2026
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol31 August 2026
- L0-3Zamalek SC26 August 2026
El Geish
- L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
What these results say
- National Bank of Egypt conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- El Geish conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- El Geish failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for El Geish had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: National Bank of Egypt vs El Geish
- 9 April 2026El Geish 1–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 29 August 2025National Bank of Egypt 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 27 February 2025El Geish 2–2 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 17 April 2024National Bank of Egypt 0–1 El GeishPremier League
- 18 September 2023El Geish 2–0 National Bank of EgyptPremier League
- 23 June 2023El Geish 1–1 National Bank of EgyptCup
Leading scorers: National Bank of Egypt and El Geish
National Bank of Egypt
GoalsAssists
- Osama Faisal20
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.32 goals for National Bank of Egypt and 0.84 for El Geish; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Anderson Santos 5' (National Bank of Egypt), Salah Abd Etouab Bouchama 73' (National Bank of Egypt), Khaled Sayed Abdelshafi 90' (National Bank of Egypt).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives National Bank of Egypt the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for National Bank of Egypt against 0.84 for El Geish. National Bank of Egypt's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for El Geish.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.