Regular Season - 16 · 15 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr Premier League prediction & result

Dinamo Stadium, Minsk
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Minsk 3-1 Slavia Mozyr.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Dinamo Minsk, 21% draw, 14% Slavia Mozyr — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk 2.29, Slavia Mozyr 0.81.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr

50%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Minsk at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Minsk99%Draw1%Slavia Mozyr0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Aleksey Ivanov
39'
48'
Aleksandr Dzhigero
⚽Evgeni Malashevichassist: Artem Sokolovskiy
53'
⚽karen vardanyanassist: Moustapha Djimet
65'
66'
🔁Evgeni Shevchenkoout: Aleksandr Batichev
67'
🔁Aleksey Antilevskiout: Ricky Stephane Ngatchou Kamtchouang
🔁Fawaz·Abdullahiout: Vladislav Poloz
68'
🔁karen vardanyanout: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth
68'
68'
🔁Nikita Romanovout: Terentiy Lutsevich
Aleksandr Selyava
69'
⚽Vladislav Poloz
78'
79'
🔁Aleksandr Derzhinskiyout: Ilya Verenich
🔁Evgeni Malashevichout: Aleksey Zhechko
79'
79'
🔁Aleksandr Dzhigeroout: Dimitri Yashin
🔁Aleksey Ivanovout: Roman Begunov
82'
🔁Moustapha Djimetout: Gulzhigit Alykulov
82'
87'
Kirill Chernook
90+3'
⚽Kirill Chernook
Leonard Chatelin·Gweth
90+6'

Match stats — Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr

58%Possession42%
13Shots4
6On target1
7Corners3

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk 3-4-3
  • 1I. ShimakovichG
  • 8A. SelyavaD
  • 12A. IvanovD
  • 26V. KalininD
  • 7E. MalashevichM
  • 42F. AbdullahiM
  • 30M. DjimetM
  • 24A. VakulichM
  • 44G. GurbanF
  • 10K. VardanyanF
  • 78A. SokolovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 80L. GwethF
  • 17I. BakharF
  • 47A. KudravetsG
  • 2M. DubatovkaD
  • 3M. ShvetsovD
  • 67R. BegunovD
  • 11G. AlykulovM
  • 13V. PolozM
  • 19R. GuiberoF
Coach: A. Shagoyko
Slavia Mozyr 4-5-1
  • 1K. VeretynskiyG
  • 11A. AntilevskiyD
  • 6Y. KuznetsovD
  • 18N. MelnikovD
  • 2A. ShemrukD
  • 17K. ChernookM
  • 49A. DzhigeroM
  • 21E. ShevchenkoM
  • 27Pavel ChikidaM
  • 19A. DerzhinskiyM
  • 7N. RomanovF
Substitutes
  • 30V. LikhtinM
  • 44T. LutsevichF
  • 13Nikita ZelimovF
  • 3Ricky NgatchouD
  • 23V. IgnatjevG
  • 9O. BatyshchevM
  • 88D. YashinD
  • 16E. AbramovichG
  • 20I. VerenichF
Coach: I. Bionchik

Form going into Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr

Dinamo Minsk

  • W3-2away to FC Dnepr Mogilev11 October 2026
  • W2-0Bate Borisov19 September 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to ML Vitebsk6 September 2026

Slavia Mozyr

  • L1-2away to Bate Borisov10 October 2026
  • L0-1Naftan19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Minsk11 September 2026
  • W3-0FC Vitebsk4 September 2026

What these results say

  • 3 of these 4 matches for Dinamo Minsk had two goals or fewer.
  • Slavia Mozyr failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Slavia Mozyr conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Dinamo Minsk2315444319+2449
10Slavia Mozyr2467112531-625

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Minsk vs Slavia Mozyr

  • 21 March 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–2 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 21 February 2026Slavia Mozyr 1–3 Dinamo MinskFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 August 2025Dinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia MozyrPremier League
  • 13 April 2025Slavia Mozyr 3–0 Dinamo MinskPremier League
  • 19 October 2024Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Slavia MozyrPremier League
  • 26 May 2024Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Dinamo MinskPremier League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.29 goals for Dinamo Minsk and 0.81 for Slavia Mozyr; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Evgeni Malashevich 53' (Dinamo Minsk), karen vardanyan 65' (Dinamo Minsk), Vladislav Poloz 78' (Dinamo Minsk), Kirill Chernook 90' (Slavia Mozyr).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dinamo Minsk the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Dinamo Minsk against 0.81 for Slavia Mozyr. Dinamo Minsk's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.01 for Slavia Mozyr.