Regular Season - 30 · 17 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction

Exploria Stadium, Orlando

Our model says: Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United

The model makes it 52% Orlando City SC, 22% draw, 26% DC United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.31, DC United 1.50.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.

Model confidence: High.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Orlando City SC are 7th on 38 points from 29 games; DC United are 12th on 33 points from 28 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
  • Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Toronto FC.
  • DC United have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to New York Red Bulls.
  • Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended DC United 3–2 Orlando City SC.

More MLS predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Orlando City SC vs DC United

70%
Both teams to score
73%
Over 2.5 goals
27%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Orlando City SC win Draw DC United win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 3–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read Orlando City SC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 53%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Orlando City SC at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Orlando City SC vs DC United

Orlando City SC

  • D3-3away to Toronto FC14 October 2026
  • W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
  • L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
  • W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026

DC United

  • W2-1New York Red Bulls14 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
  • L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
  • D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
  • Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • DC United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Who is missing for Orlando City SC vs DC United

Orlando City SC

  • T. Spicerfoot injury
  • G. Dorseyback injuryDoubtful

DC United

  • G. Segalleg injury
  • H. Kijimaleg injury
  • L. Bartlettsuspended (red card)
  • L. Munteanuleg injury

From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Orlando City SC29115135469-1538
12DC United2871293647-1133

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Orlando City SC

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today

Win 0%
Draw <1%
Defeat 4%

DC United

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 13%
Draw 28%
Defeat 38%

From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs DC United

  • 25 April 2026DC United 3–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 13 September 2025DC United 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 22 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 6 July 2024Orlando City SC 5–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2024DC United 2–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 22 April 2023Orlando City SC 1–3 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and DC United

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda132

DC United

GoalsAssists

  • T. Baribo140

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.38 for DC United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.50 for DC United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Orlando City SC rate 0.84 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; DC United rate 0.58 and 1.50.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.50 for DC United. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.5 for DC United.

Season stats

Orlando City SCDC United
27Matches26
10W 4D 13LRecord6W 12D 8L
48 1.8 per gameGoals scored34 1.3 per game
64 2.4 per gameGoals conceded42 1.6 per game
4 of 27Clean sheets6 of 26
5 of 27Failed to score8 of 26
4 of 4Penalties scored4 of 4
61 2.3 per gameYellow cards53 2.0 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-4-2 21×

Orlando City SC at home · DC United away

13Played12
7W 2D 4LRecord2W 7D 3L
23–17Goals for – against16–17
3 of 13Clean sheets3 of 12

League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Major League Soccer matches this season: Orlando City SC 27, DC United 26.

Orlando City SC scored 41239914
DC United conceded 17951011

Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); DC United have let in 11 there.

DC United scored 2736411
Orlando City SC conceded 6111013814

DC United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 14 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Orlando City SC

DC United

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.