New York Red Bulls
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FC
The model makes it 41% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 33% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.60, Toronto FC 1.37.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- New York Red Bulls are 8th on 36 points from 29 games; Toronto FC are 11th on 33 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York Red Bulls have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to DC United.
- Toronto FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Orlando City SC.
- Last 6 meetings: New York Red Bulls 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red Bulls.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
- L1-2away to DC United14 October 2026
- W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
Toronto FC
- D3-3Orlando City SC14 October 2026
- W2-1CF Montreal10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
- L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toronto FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toronto FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
- A. Marcucciknee injury
Toronto FC
- N. Palaciolower-body injury
- W. Zimmermanankle injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 36 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 29 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
New York Red Bulls
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
Toronto FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 36% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
- 14 March 2026Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 25 June 2025Toronto FC 1–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025New York Red Bulls 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 October 2024Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 28 July 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
- 22 June 2024New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.44 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.37 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 0.58 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.66 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.37 for Toronto FC. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.5 for Toronto FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York Red Bulls at home · Toronto FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York Red Bulls 27, Toronto FC 27.
New York Red Bulls score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Toronto FC have let in 13 there.
Toronto FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); New York Red Bulls have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
New York Red Bulls
- vs Inter Miami24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- at New England Revolution28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 25%
- at Nashville SC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 13%
- vs Atlanta United FC7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 42%
Toronto FC
- at Columbus Crew24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 28%
- vs DC United28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 47%
- at Atlanta United FC1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 32%
- at Philadelphia Union7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.