Los Angeles Galaxy
vs
Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Los Angeles Galaxy, 24% draw, 33% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Los Angeles Galaxy 1.91, Portland Timbers 1.61.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 2CalegariD
- 15J. HaakD
- 25C. GarcésD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 17P. RuizM
- 6Sergi RobertoM
- 18M. ReusM
- 28J. PaintsilM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 99KlaussF
- 3J. AudeD
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 1N. MićovićG
- 26Harbor MillerD
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 22E. WynderM
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 21D. CharáM
- 17C. BassettM
- 28A. AravenaF
- 11AntonyF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L2-6away to St. Louis City11 October 2026
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
Portland Timbers
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Portland Timbers did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 39 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
- 22 March 2026Portland Timbers 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 23 January 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–4 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Portland Timbers 4–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.91 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.61 for Portland Timbers; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marco Reus 17' (Los Angeles Galaxy), Justin Haak 80' (Los Angeles Galaxy).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Los Angeles Galaxy against 1.61 for Portland Timbers. Los Angeles Galaxy's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.65 for Portland Timbers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.