Chicago Fire
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Chicago Fire, 24% draw, 39% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.80, Philadelphia Union 1.84.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 32N. AllenD
- 18J. GómezM
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 22M. PinedaM
- 19J. BambaM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 15A. GutmanD
- 25J. GalG
- 11P. ZinckernagelF
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 44J. CohenG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 35S. OregelM
- 29D. PorębaM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 4J. LukićM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 16B. BenderM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 19I. VassilevM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 2G. MartínezD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
Philadelphia Union
- W2-1Real Salt Lake10 October 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Philadelphia Union won every one of these 4 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Philadelphia Union had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 48 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
- 21 March 2026Philadelphia Union 1–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 1 November 2025Chicago Fire 0–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 26 October 2025Philadelphia Union 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025Philadelphia Union 4–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2025Chicago Fire 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2024Chicago Fire 4–3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.80 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.84 for Philadelphia Union; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Maren Haile-Selassie 44' (Chicago Fire), Milan Iloski 49' (Philadelphia Union), Bruno Damiani 55' (Philadelphia Union), Bruno Damiani 67' (Philadelphia Union).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Philadelphia Union the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.84 for Philadelphia Union. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.26 for Philadelphia Union.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.