Atletico Mineiro
vs
Atletico Torque
CONMEBOL Sudamericana prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Atletico Torque.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Atletico Mineiro, 22% draw, 14% Atletico Torque — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 2.23, Atletico Torque 0.81.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Chance to go through
First leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Semi-finals tie. Second leg: Atletico Torque v Atletico Mineiro, 21 Oct →
Aggregate: Atletico Mineiro 3–0 Atletico Torque
- Atletico Mineiro97%
- Level after both legs2%
- Atletico Torque1%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 21A. FrancoD
- 40VitãoD
- 13LyancoD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 15K. CastañoM
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
- 11BernardM
- 19ReinierF
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 92DuduF
- 17Igor GomesM
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 18T. BorbasF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 1F. TorgnascioliG
- 17E. AgüeroD
- 24G. KagelmacherD
- 3K. SilvaD
- 2B. GutierrezD
- 26F. SilveraD
- 5F. PizzichilloM
- 8P. SilesM
- 20G. MontesM
- 10E. ObregónM
- 9S. RodríguezF
- 32S. CáceresM
- 23L. DuréM
- 19D. GuzmánM
- 18R. LecchiniF
- 16ignacio molinaF
- 21N. PerezD
- 30J. QuintanaF
- 13G. RodríguezG
- 27J. TaránM
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
Atletico Mineiro
- L0-2away to Santos9 September 2026
- D2-2RB Bragantino19 August 2026
- W1-0away to RB Bragantino12 August 2026
- W1-0Puerto Cabello27 May 2026
Atletico Torque
- W3-0Cienciano18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Cienciano11 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre20 August 2026
- W1-0away to Tigre12 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
- Atletico Torque won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Torque scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Sudamericana table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Mineiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 1 | Atletico Torque | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Atletico Torque
- 14 October 2026Atletico Mineiro 3–0 Atletico TorqueCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Atletico Torque
Atletico Mineiro
GoalsAssists
- Bernard50
- T. Cuello34
- Reinier31
Atletico Torque
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez71
- F. Pizzichillo31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.23 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.81 for Atletico Torque; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Reinier Jesus Carvalho 37' (Atletico Mineiro), Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 42' (Atletico Mineiro), Thiago Borbas 80' (Atletico Mineiro).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 0.81 for Atletico Torque. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.7 for Atletico Torque.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.