Regular Season - 29 · 15 October 2026, 00:30 UTC

FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium(Texas), Frisco
Referee: Jon Freemon
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Dallas 1-0 Seattle Sounders.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% FC Dallas, 27% draw, 29% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.66, Seattle Sounders 1.22.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

More MLS predictions

All MLS predictions →

Model insights: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Dallas at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas96%Draw4%Seattle Sounders0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

58'
🔁Nouhou Toloout: Jordan Morris
59'
🔁Kalani Kossa-Rienziout: Alexander Roldan
⚽Kaick da Silva Ferreiraassist: Osaze Urhoghide
63'
66'
🔁Sebastian Gomezout: Jesús Ferreira
🔁Santiago Morenoout: Patrickson Delgado
74'
🔁Joaquín Valiente Cioliout: Christian Cappis
74'
Patrickson Delgado
81'
🔁Bernard Kamungoout: Herman Johansson
82'
83'
🔁Snyder Brunellout: Peter Kingston
83'
🔁stuar hawkinsout: Caden Clark
Daniel
90+8'

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

43%Possession57%
15Shots16
3On target7
7Corners11
0.97xG1.82

Goals against chances

FC Dallas1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Seattle Sounders0 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 42DanielG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 55KaickM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 10S. MorenoM
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 7D. JobM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 28Samuel SarverF
  • 27Caleb SwannM
  • 40J. SiroisG
Coach: Eric Quill
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziD
  • 39S. HawkinsD
  • 25J. RagenD
  • 5N. ToloD
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 11A. RusnákM
  • 17P. ArriolaM
  • 9D. JoveljićF
Substitutes
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 27J. FerreiraF
  • 8C. ClarkM
  • 28Y. GómezD
  • 45P. KingstonM
  • 13J. MorrisF
  • 19D. MusovskiF
  • 16A. RoldanD
  • 31H. DotsonM
Coach: B. Schmetzer

Form going into FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

FC Dallas

  • L2-3away to Charlotte10 October 2026
  • W1-0Los Angeles FC27 September 2026
  • D0-0Austin20 September 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers13 September 2026

Seattle Sounders

  • W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
  • W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
  • W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
  • W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dallas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Seattle Sounders had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FC Dallas2914875345+850
7Seattle Sounders29118103836+241

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders

  • 26 April 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 24 May 2025Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2025FC Dallas 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 23 June 2024Seattle Sounders 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 14 April 2024FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 11 November 2023Seattle Sounders 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Seattle Sounders

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa195

Seattle Sounders

GoalsAssists

  • D. Joveljić121

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.66 goals for FC Dallas and 1.22 for Seattle Sounders; the game produced 1 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kaick da Silva Ferreira 63' (FC Dallas).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Dallas the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for FC Dallas against 1.22 for Seattle Sounders. FC Dallas's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.22 for Seattle Sounders.