St. Louis City
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 0-0 Vancouver Whitecaps.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% St. Louis City, 26% draw, 34% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St. Louis City 1.68, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.50.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More MLS predictions
Model insights: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. BürkiG
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 27F. FallD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 23A. MățanF
- 28M. PerezM
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 11S. BecherF
- 42D. DownsF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 1Y. TakaokaG
- 18É. OcampoD
- 2M. LabordaD
- 6R. PrisoD
- 28T. JohnsonD
- 8O. LarrazM
- 20A. CubasM
- 11E. SabbiM
- 25R. GauldM
- 77Y. DiabyM
- 24B. WhiteF
- 14Bruno Steven Caicedo QuiñonezF
- 23A. CvetkovićM
- 41N. DjordjevicD
- 19R. ElloumiF
- 29M. GherasimencovD
- 70Rui ModestoM
- 7C. SabalyF
- 32I. BoehmerG
- 4R. VeselinovićD
Form going into St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
- W6-2Los Angeles Galaxy11 October 2026
- W3-0away to New York Red Bulls30 September 2026
- W3-1Toronto FC20 September 2026
- W4-2Minnesota United FC13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Louis City won every one of these 4 matches.
- St. Louis City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 54 | 38 | +16 | 51 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 6 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 20 April 2025St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024St. Louis City 1–4 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 4–3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro175
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St. Louis City carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.71 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for St. Louis City and 1.50 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Louis City rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.81 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vancouver Whitecaps, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St. Louis City a 25.5% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 63.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Louis City the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for St. Louis City against 1.50 for Vancouver Whitecaps. St. Louis City's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.08 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.