Austin
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 26% Austin, 25% draw, 49% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austin 1.19, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.84.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Vancouver Whitecaps are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Austin are 14th on 31 points from 29 games; Vancouver Whitecaps are top on 52 points from 29 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Austin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Los Angeles FC.
- Vancouver Whitecaps are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to St. Louis City.
- Last 6 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Austin.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC15 October 2026
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
- D0-0away to St. Louis City15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
- W3-0away to Real Salt Lake20 September 2026
What these results say
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
- Z. Kolmanicthigh injury
- M. Deslerlower-body injuryDoubtful
Vancouver Whitecaps
- B. Halbouniknee injury
- J. Badwalhamstring injury
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamurafoot injury
- S. Adekugbemuscle injury
- T. Mullermuscle injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 31 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 61 | 30 | +31 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Austin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
Vancouver Whitecaps
Chance to finish top of the Western Conference · 64% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 13 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2025Austin 0–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 12 April 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 5–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024Austin 0–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 5 May 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austin carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.71 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Austin and 1.84 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austin rate 0.60 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.81 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austin a 0% chance of the title and Vancouver Whitecaps 63.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Austin against 1.84 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Austin's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.08 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austin at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Austin 29, Vancouver Whitecaps 29.
Austin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Vancouver Whitecaps have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Austin
- at Sporting Kansas City25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 37%
- vs Real Salt Lake29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 42%
- at Los Angeles Galaxy31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 30%
- vs Portland Timbers8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 41%
Vancouver Whitecaps
- at Colorado Rapids25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- vs San Diego29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 60%
- vs Seattle Sounders1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 53%
- at CF Montreal7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.