Difaa EL Jadida
vs
Moghreb Tetouan
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Difaa EL Jadida 0–1 Moghreb Tetouan
The model makes it 34% Difaa EL Jadida, 30% draw, 36% Moghreb Tetouan — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Difaa EL Jadida 1.10, Moghreb Tetouan 1.17.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Difaa EL Jadida and Moghreb Tetouan are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Difaa EL Jadida are 13th on 3 points from 3 games; Moghreb Tetouan are 12th on 3 points from 3 games — Botola Pro.
- Difaa EL Jadida have won 1 of their last 3 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Amal Tiznit.
- Moghreb Tetouan are unbeaten in their last 3 games (0 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FUS Rabat.
- Last 6 meetings: Difaa EL Jadida 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended Moghreb Tetouan 1–3 Difaa EL Jadida.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Moghreb Tetouan at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan
Difaa EL Jadida
- W5-2away to Amal Tiznit10 October 2026
- L0-2Wydad AC3 October 2026
- L2-6CODM Meknès26 September 2026
Moghreb Tetouan
- D0-0FUS Rabat9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ittihad Tanger2 October 2026
- D0-0Renaissance Berkane27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Difaa EL Jadida | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Moghreb Tetouan | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Difaa EL Jadida vs Moghreb Tetouan
- 22 February 2025Moghreb Tetouan 1–3 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 22 October 2024Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 3 April 2023Difaa EL Jadida 0–0 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 15 October 2022Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
- 18 May 2021Difaa EL Jadida 2–2 Moghreb TetouanBotola Pro
- 13 December 2020Moghreb Tetouan 2–2 Difaa EL JadidaBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Difaa EL Jadida carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.34 for Moghreb Tetouan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Difaa EL Jadida and 1.17 for Moghreb Tetouan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Difaa EL Jadida rate 0.67 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moghreb Tetouan rate 0.45 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Moghreb Tetouan the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Difaa EL Jadida against 1.17 for Moghreb Tetouan. Difaa EL Jadida's attack/defence rating is 0.67/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.33 for Moghreb Tetouan.
Season stats
Difaa EL Jadida at home · Moghreb Tetouan away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Difaa EL JadidaMoghreb Tetouan
Difaa EL Jadida are 12th after 3 Botola Pro matches (between 12th and 16th so far); Moghreb Tetouan are 11th after 3 (between 5th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Difaa EL Jadida 3, Moghreb Tetouan 3.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.