Seattle Sounders
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Seattle Sounders 1–0 CF Montreal
The model makes it 54% Seattle Sounders, 26% draw, 20% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Seattle Sounders 1.78, CF Montreal 0.89.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Seattle Sounders: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Seattle Sounders are 7th in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 41 points from 29 games; CF Montreal are bottom in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 24 points from 29 games.
- Seattle Sounders have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Dallas.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Atlanta United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Montreal 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 April 2024, ended Seattle Sounders 5–0 CF Montreal.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
- L0-1away to FC Dallas15 October 2026
- W3-0away to New England Revolution10 October 2026
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
CF Montreal
- L0-3Atlanta United FC14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026
What these results say
- Seattle Sounders won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
- N. Petkovicknee injury
- P. de La Vegacalf injury
- P. Rothrockhamstring injury
CF Montreal
- B. Ceballoslower-body injury
- B. Hidalgogroin injury
- T. Gillierupper-body injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 41 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Seattle Sounders
Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal
- 7 April 2024Seattle Sounders 5–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 30 June 2022Seattle Sounders 1–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 5 June 2019CF Montreal 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 1 April 2018Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 12 March 2017CF Montreal 2–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 April 2016Seattle Sounders 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Seattle Sounders carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.27 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Seattle Sounders and 0.89 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Seattle Sounders rate 0.60 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.50 and 1.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Seattle Sounders the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Seattle Sounders against 0.89 for CF Montreal. Seattle Sounders's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.62 for CF Montreal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Seattle Sounders at home · CF Montreal away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Seattle Sounders 29, CF Montreal 27.
Seattle Sounders score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); CF Montreal have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Seattle Sounders
- at San Diego25 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 33%
- vs Houston Dynamo29 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 40%
- at Vancouver Whitecaps1 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
- vs Los Angeles FC8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
CF Montreal
- vs Nashville SC24 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 16%
- at Charlotte28 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 18%
- at New York City FC31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 19%
- vs Vancouver Whitecaps7 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.