Los Angeles FC
vs
Los Angeles Galaxy
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Los Angeles FC 2–0 Los Angeles Galaxy
The model makes it 55% Los Angeles FC, 25% draw, 20% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.94, Los Angeles Galaxy 0.99.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Los Angeles FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Los Angeles FC are 6th on 45 points from 30 games; Los Angeles Galaxy are 8th on 39 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Western Conference.
- Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Austin.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Portland Timbers.
- Last 6 meetings: Los Angeles FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 Los Angeles FC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles FC at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles FC
- W3-1Austin15 October 2026
- D1-1Vancouver Whitecaps11 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
Los Angeles Galaxy
- W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026
- L2-6away to St. Louis City11 October 2026
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 47 | 32 | +15 | 45 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Los Angeles FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 23% today
Los Angeles Galaxy
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Major League Soccer season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy
- 18 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 20 July 2025Los Angeles FC 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 19 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 4–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2024Los Angeles FC 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga155
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 41 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Los Angeles FC carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.39 for Los Angeles Galaxy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Los Angeles FC and 0.99 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Los Angeles FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles Galaxy rate 0.63 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Los Angeles FC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Los Angeles FC against 0.99 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Los Angeles FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.58 for Los Angeles Galaxy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Los Angeles FC at home · Los Angeles Galaxy away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Los Angeles FC 30, Los Angeles Galaxy 30.
Los Angeles FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Los Angeles Galaxy have let in 11 there.
Los Angeles Galaxy score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Los Angeles FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Los Angeles FC
- vs Minnesota United FC2 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 55%
- at Seattle Sounders8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 35%
Los Angeles Galaxy
- vs Austin31 Oct · Major League Soccerwin 45%
- at Real Salt Lake8 Nov · Major League Soccerwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.