Mjallby AIF
vs
Inter Club d'Escaldes
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Mjallby AIF 2-0 Inter Club d'Escaldes.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mjallby AIF, 26% draw, 29% Inter Club d'Escaldes — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.78, Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.32.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mjallby AIF at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35Alexander LundinG
- 33Tony MiettinenD
- 4Axel NorénD
- 5Abdullah IqbalD
- 14Villiam GranathM
- 10Jeppe KjaerM
- 22Jesper GustavssonM
- 6Mads EnggårdM
- 3Martin AgnarssonM
- 7Viktor GustafsonF
- 18Jacob BergströmF
- 23Áki SamuelsenF
- 29Olle LindbergM
- 27Ludvig TidstrandM
- 24Tom PetterssonD
- 1Sebastian HansenG
- 13Robin WallinderG
- 2Ludvig SvanbergD
- 26Ian HoffmannD
- 39Romeo LeanderssonM
- 13Javier DíazG
- 24Maurizio PochettinoD
- 4Álex SánchezD
- 2Anwar HernandezD
- 3Jilmar TorresD
- 6Víctor AlonsoM
- 11Domi BerlangaM
- 19Pablo MolinaM
- 8David LópezM
- 31Soule SidibeM
- 9Faysal ChouaibF
- 70Borja ArellanoF
- 18Robin LafargeD
- 23Lamine DiabyD
- 17Adrian Da CunhaD
- 99RafinhaF
- 1Pol FreixanetG
- 21Marc RodríguezD
- 7Juan CamaraM
- 44Alex LeitaoF
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
Mjallby AIF
- D1-1Degerfors IF10 October 2026
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
Inter Club d'Escaldes
- D0-0Drita27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Drita20 August 2026
- W4-0away to Flora Tallinn13 August 2026
- W2-0Flora Tallinn6 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Inter Club d'Escaldes kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 36 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Inter Club d'Escaldes
- 15 October 2026Mjallby AIF 2–0 Inter Club d'EscaldesUEFA Europa Conference League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.78 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.32 for Inter Club d'Escaldes; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Bergstrom 54' (Mjallby AIF), A. Noren 65' (Mjallby AIF).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.32 for Inter Club d'Escaldes. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.75 for Inter Club d'Escaldes.