St. Truiden
vs
FC Iberia 1999
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: St. Truiden 2-0 FC Iberia 1999.
Before kick-off the model made it 74% St. Truiden, 17% draw, 9% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 1.35, 5.88 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: St. Truiden 2.83, FC Iberia 1999 0.74.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Truiden at 74% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
St. Truiden
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to SK Beveren12 September 2026
- W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
FC Iberia 1999
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi21 September 2026
- W2-1Dila17 September 2026
- W1-0Spaeri13 September 2026
What these results say
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999 in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | Erovnuli Liga | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 49 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Jupiler Pro League · Erovnuli Liga
Head-to-head: St. Truiden vs FC Iberia 1999
- 15 October 2026St. Truiden 1–0 FC Iberia 1999UEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: St. Truiden and FC Iberia 1999
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- R. Merlen34
FC Iberia 1999
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
St. Truiden carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.31 for FC Iberia 1999. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.83 goals for St. Truiden and 0.74 for FC Iberia 1999. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St. Truiden rate 1.02 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.54 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St. Truiden the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.83 expected goals for St. Truiden against 0.74 for FC Iberia 1999. St. Truiden's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.61 for FC Iberia 1999.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.