Universitatea Craiova
vs
Getafe
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Craiova 1-1 Getafe.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Universitatea Craiova, 33% draw, 22% Getafe — fair odds of 2.22, 3.03 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.17, Getafe 0.65.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Laurenţiu PopescuG
- 3Oleksandr RomanchukD
- 24Nikola StevanovićD
- 6Vladimir ScreciuD
- 23Samuel TelesM
- 16João LameiraM
- 8Tudor BăluțăM
- 11Nicușor BancuM
- 20Alexandru CicâldăuF
- 9Assad Al-HamlawiF
- 10Ștefan BaiaramF
- 30David MateiM
- 4Alexandru CrețuM
- 22Simon ElisorF
- 29Luca BăsceanuM
- 1Alexandru MaximG
- 90Răzvan SavaG
- 31Ronaldo WebsterD
- 5Baptiste RouxD
- 7Steven NsimbaF
- 13David SoriaG
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 2DjenéD
- 26Jean Ives ValouD
- 3DavinchiD
- 8Nemanja GudeljM
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 11Ramón TerratsM
- 6Mario MartínM
- 10Martín SatrianoM
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 17Kiko FemeníaD
- 22Johan MojicaD
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 15Sebastián BoselliD
- 1Jiří LetáčekG
- 35Diego FerrerG
- 4Saba SazonovD
- 5Abdel AbqarD
Form going into Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
Universitatea Craiova
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapid31 August 2026
Getafe
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Craiova went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe
- 15 October 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–1 GetafeUEFA Europa Conference League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.17 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.65 for Getafe; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Al Hamlawi 59' (Universitatea Craiova), N. Gudelj 81' (Getafe).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.65 for Getafe. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/0.76 for Getafe.