Twente
vs
FC Thun
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Twente 1-0 FC Thun.
Before kick-off the model made it 75% Twente, 16% draw, 9% FC Thun — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Twente 2.87, FC Thun 0.71.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Twente vs FC Thun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 75% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Twente vs FC Thun
Twente
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
What these results say
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Twente and FC Thun in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | Eredivisie | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Thun | Super League | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 10 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Super League
Head-to-head: Twente vs FC Thun
- 15 October 2026Twente 1–0 FC ThunUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Twente and FC Thun
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst42
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
A clear gap in the ratings
Twente carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.43 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.87 goals for Twente and 0.71 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Twente rate 0.98 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.72 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Twente against 0.71 for FC Thun. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.7 for FC Thun.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.