League Stage - 1 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Riga vs Kairat Almaty UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Skonto, Rīga
Referee: Florjan Lata, Albania
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Riga 1-1 Kairat Almaty.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Riga, 26% draw, 26% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Riga 1.84, Kairat Almaty 1.23.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Riga vs Kairat Almaty

60%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Riga at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Riga5%Draw92%Kairat Almaty3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽M. Gual (pen)
⚽S. Oulad M'Handassist: M. Tonisevs
12'
23'
J. Oksanen
⚽M. Badamosi (pen)assist: M. Badamosi
28'
56'
E. Tapalov
🔁M. Badamosiout: Reginaldo Ramires
61'
73'
🔁Edmilsonout: I. Bekbolat
79'
🔁A. Mrynskiyout: A. Tuyakbaev
79'
🔁G. Mendonsaout: D. Kasabulat
🔁R. Aouaniout: S. L. Robalo Pedro
86'
🔁M. Diopout: C. Saco
86'
90+2'
A. Martynovich

Match stats — Riga vs Kairat Almaty

64%Possession36%
18Shots14
8On target4
2Corners3
2.31xG1.15

Goals against chances

Riga1 from 2.31 xGless than the chances were worth
Kairat Almaty1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Riga 4-2-3-1
  • 12Kenan PirićG
  • 23Maksims TonisevsD
  • 21Baba MusahD
  • 5Karl Gameni WassomD
  • 13Raivis JurkovskisD
  • 40Ahmed AnkrahM
  • 8Iago Siqueira AugustoM
  • 22Meïssa DiopM
  • 18Salah Oulad M'HandM
  • 7Raki AouaniM
  • 19Muhammed BadamosiF
Substitutes
  • 10Reginaldo RamiresF
  • 6Coli SacoM
  • 15Samuel PedroF
  • 44Marcis KazainisG
  • 91Frenks OrolsG
  • 34Antonijs ČernomordijsD
  • 25Abdulrahman TaiwoF
Kairat Almaty 4-2-3-1
  • 1Temirlan AnarbekovG
  • 20Erkin TapalovD
  • 14Aleksandr MartynovichD
  • 25Aleksandr ShirobokovD
  • 3Luís MataD
  • 22Gustavo MendoncaM
  • 13Jaakko OksanenM
  • 24Aleksandr MrynskiyM
  • 28Marc GualM
  • 19Oiva JukkolaM
  • 9EdmilsonF
Substitutes
  • 81Ismail BekbolatF
  • 4Damir KasabulatD
  • 17Azamat TuyakbayevM
  • 82Sherkhan KalmurzaG
  • 5Lev KurginD
  • 6Adilet SadybekovM
  • 8Olzhas BaibekM
  • 27Mukhamedali AbishM
  • 15Mansur BirkurmanovF

Form going into Riga vs Kairat Almaty

Riga

  • W2-1KI Klaksvik27 August 2026
  • D0-0away to KI Klaksvik20 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Gyori ETO FC13 August 2026
  • W1-0Gyori ETO FC6 August 2026
  • W5-2Vardar Skopje28 July 2026

Kairat Almaty

  • L0-3away to Anderlecht27 August 2026
  • L0-3Anderlecht20 August 2026
  • L0-1Levski Sofia11 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Levski Sofia4 August 2026
  • W1-0Omonia Nicosia29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Riga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Riga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kairat Almaty conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Riga10101101
10Kairat Almaty10101101

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Riga vs Kairat Almaty

  • 15 October 2026Riga 1–1 Kairat AlmatyUEFA Europa Conference League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.84 goals for Riga and 1.23 for Kairat Almaty; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: M. Gual 5' (Kairat Almaty), S. Oulad M'Hand 12' (Riga).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Riga the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Riga against 1.23 for Kairat Almaty. Riga's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.14 for Kairat Almaty.