Panathinaikos
vs
Borac Banja Luka
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Panathinaikos 2-1 Borac Banja Luka.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Panathinaikos, 21% draw, 12% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 1.49, 4.76 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.29, Borac Banja Luka 0.72.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Conference League predictions
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Iñaki PeñaG
- 2Davide CalabriaD
- 6Stefan de VrijD
- 55Rick Van DrongelenD
- 77Georgios KyriakopoulosD
- 42Kings KangwaM
- 22Etienne CamaraM
- 20Vicente TabordaM
- 21Azzedine OunahiM
- 10Santino AndinoM
- 9Cyriel DessersF
- 7Andreas TettehF
- 99Levi GarcíaF
- 8Adriano JagušićM
- 74Elmin RastoderF
- 70Konstantinos KotsarisG
- 71Christos GitonasG
- 14Erik Palmer BrownD
- 19Triantafyllos TsaprasM
- 34Victor KristiansenD
- 72Mladen JurkasG
- 4Branimir CipetićD
- 2Bart MeijersD
- 6Siniša SaničaninD
- 16Sebastian HerreraD
- 98Sandi OgrinecM
- 18Miloš JojićM
- 44Ante RoguljićM
- 12Amer HirošM
- 77Stefan SavićM
- 7Luka JuričićF
- 19Viktor RoganD
- 89Matej DeketF
- 10David VukovićF
- 23Stojan VranješM
- 1Damjan SiskovskiG
- 3Abel PascualD
- 20Erik RiđanD
- 24Jurich CarolinaD
- 13Anderson EsitiM
Form going into Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
Panathinaikos
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Kalamata20 September 2026
- W3-0Panetolikos13 September 2026
- W3-1Kifisia10 September 2026
- W3-1PAOK6 September 2026
Borac Banja Luka
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-1Vikingur Reykjavik27 August 2026
- W3-1away to Vikingur Reykjavik20 August 2026
- L0-1away to ML Vitebsk13 August 2026
- W1-0ML Vitebsk6 August 2026
What these results say
- Panathinaikos won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Panathinaikos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 32 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- 3 October 2024Borac Banja Luka 1–1 PanathinaikosUEFA Europa Conference League
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and Borac Banja Luka
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers30
Borac Banja Luka
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.29 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.72 for Borac Banja Luka; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: C. Dessers 10' (Panathinaikos), K. Kangwa 70' (Panathinaikos), M. Jojic 80' (Borac Banja Luka).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 0.72 for Borac Banja Luka. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.23 for Borac Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.