League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Letná, Prague
Referee: Martin Matosa
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Sparta Praha, 21% draw, 13% Lillestrom — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Sparta Praha 2.33, Lillestrom 0.76.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

49%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 12%1-0 10%3-0 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sparta Praha at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sparta Praha98%Draw2%Lillestrom0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Martin Suchomel
18'
28'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
Ebrima Singhateh
30'
🔁Ebrima Singhatehout: Josimar Alcocer
45'
⚽Josimar Alcocerassist: Jonatan Braut Brunes
56'
🔁Sivert Heggheim Mannsverkout: Roman Macek
61'
🔁Matej Jurasekout: John Mercado
61'
🔁Martin Suchomelout: Ki-Jana Hoever
61'
65'
🔁Daniel Bassiout: Eric Kitolano
65'
🔁Fredrik Gulbrandsenout: Thomas Lehne Olsen
70'
🔁Gustav Kjolstad Nyheimout: Henrik Molvaer Melland
73'
🔁Winston Robin Yaw Paintsilout: Frederik Elkaer
73'
🔁Felix Váout: Gustav Nordh
Roman Macek
77'
🔁Andy Irvingout: Santiago Eneme
85'
90+1'
⚽Thomas Lehne Olsenassist: Gustav Nordh
90+3'
Henrik Molvaer Melland

Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

53%Possession47%
15Shots6
8On target2
6Corners1
1.12xG0.8

Goals against chances

Sparta Praha1 from 1.12 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lillestrom1 from 0.80 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sparta Praha 4-2-3-1
  • 44J. SurovčíkG
  • 2M. SuchomelD
  • 19A. ŠevínskýD
  • 6T. GuddalD
  • 15V. VitályosD
  • 18A. IrvingM
  • 20S. MannsverkM
  • 31M. JurásekM
  • 38H. SochurekM
  • 27E. SinghatehM
  • 14J. Braut BrunesF
Substitutes
  • 30J. ZelenýD
  • 26P. VydraM
  • 47K. HegyiG
  • 21J. GrimaldoF
  • 5Santiago EnemeM
  • 7J. AlcócerF
  • 25K. HoeverD
  • 3P. KadeřábekD
  • 28R. MacekM
Coach: Brian Priske
Lillestrom 4-3-3
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 26Y. PaintsilD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 14G. NyheimM
  • 22D. BassiF
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
  • 20VáF
Substitutes
  • 7L. AlperudM
  • 17E. KitolanoM
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 5S. FossD
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 1S. HagerupG
Coach: H. Ødegaard

Form going into Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

Sparta Praha

  • W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026

Lillestrom

  • L1-2Torreense17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Sparta Praha211052+34
23Lillestrom201123-11

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom

  • 15 October 2026Sparta Praha 1–1 LillestromUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Lillestrom

Sparta Praha

GoalsAssists

  • T. Guddal20

Lillestrom

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.33 goals for Sparta Praha and 0.76 for Lillestrom; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Josimar Alcocer 56' (Sparta Praha), Thomas Lehne Olsen 90' (Lillestrom).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 0.76 for Lillestrom. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.22 for Lillestrom.