Palmeiras
vs
Fluminense
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 1–0 Fluminense
The model makes it 54% Palmeiras, 27% draw, 19% Fluminense — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.62, Fluminense 0.73.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Palmeiras: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Palmeiras are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group F on 11 points from 6 games; Fluminense are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group C on 8 points from 6 games.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Fluminense.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Palmeiras.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras.
Chance to go through
Second leg of the CONMEBOL Libertadores Semi-finals tie. First leg: Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras (15 Oct) →
Aggregate: Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
- Fluminense5%
- Level after both legs11%
- Palmeiras84%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes per leg, from the score matrices of the legs still to play. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Palmeiras
- W2-1away to Fluminense15 October 2026
- W1-0LDU de Quito9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cerro Porteno19 August 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 August 2026
- W4-1Junior28 May 2026
Fluminense
- L1-2Palmeiras15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Platense15 September 2026
- W2-0Platense8 September 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia11 August 2026
- W3-1Deportivo La Guaira28 May 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Fluminense
- 15 August 2026Fluminense 3–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 26 February 2026Palmeiras 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 November 2025Palmeiras 0–0 FluminenseSerie A
- 23 July 2025Fluminense 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 8 December 2024Palmeiras 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 25 July 2024Fluminense 1–0 PalmeirasSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Fluminense
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López34
- J. Arias32
Fluminense
No player in CONMEBOL Libertadores's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.86 for Fluminense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Palmeiras and 0.73 for Fluminense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 1.07 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fluminense rate 1.02 and 1.00.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.73 for Fluminense. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1 for Fluminense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Palmeiras at home · Fluminense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Palmeiras 30, Fluminense 30.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Palmeiras have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Palmeiras
- vs RB Bragantino24 Oct · Serie Awin 60%
- at Santos28 Oct · Serie Awin 41%
- vs Remo5 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
- at Cruzeiro18 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Fluminense
- at Chapecoense24 Oct · Serie Awin 51%
- vs Internacional28 Oct · Serie Awin 56%
- at Vitoria6 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Sao Paulo18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.