Kairat Almaty
vs
Panathinaikos
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Kairat Almaty 0–2 Panathinaikos
The model makes it 9% Kairat Almaty, 16% draw, 75% Panathinaikos — fair odds of 11.11, 6.25 and 1.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Kairat Almaty 0.68, Panathinaikos 2.79.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kairat Almaty are 10th on 1 point from 1 game; Panathinaikos are 6th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Olympiakos Piraeus.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 75% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos
Kairat Almaty
- D1-1away to Riga15 October 2026
Panathinaikos
- W2-1Borac Banja Luka15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Kairat Almaty and Panathinaikos
Kairat Almaty
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Kairat Almaty carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.99 for Panathinaikos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.68 goals for Kairat Almaty and 2.79 for Panathinaikos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kairat Almaty rate 0.48 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Panathinaikos rate 1.08 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Kairat Almaty against 2.79 for Panathinaikos. Kairat Almaty's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.82 for Panathinaikos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kairat Almaty
- at Atalanta5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 2%
- vs Mjallby AIF26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- vs Universitatea Craiova10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%
- at Twente17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Panathinaikos
- at Volos NFC25 Oct · Super League 1win 64%
- vs AEK Athens FC1 Nov · Super League 1win 32%
- vs CSKA Sofia5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 66%
- at Iraklis 19088 Nov · Super League 1win 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.