Taça de Portugal predictions

4 matches ahead, from 17 October to 18 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Academica, 52% against Amarante. 1 is marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Saturday 17 October — 2 matches

15:00 UTC AVS vs Moreirense — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
19:15 UTC Academica vs Amarante — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Edge: Academica

Sunday 18 October — 2 matches

14:00 UTC Tondela vs Alverca — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
18:45 UTC CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca — model 22% / 27% / 51%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.55 · 3.70 · 1.96. One-sided: Arouca