Academica
vs
Amarante
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Academica 2–1 Amarante
The model makes it 52% Academica, 25% draw, 23% Amarante — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Academica 1.95, Amarante 1.13.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Academica: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Academica are 6th on 12 points from 7 games; Amarante are 16th on 5 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Academica have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to União de Leiria.
- Amarante are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Portimonense.
- Last 3 meetings: Amarante 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Academica 1–1 Amarante.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Academica56%
- Level after ninety minutes23%
- Amarante21%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Academica vs Amarante
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Academica at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Academica vs Amarante
Academica
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026
Amarante
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Leixoes6 September 2026
- W1-0Benfica B30 August 2026
- D0-0away to Vizela22 August 2026
What these results say
- Amarante failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amarante scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Academica vs Amarante
- 12 April 2026Academica 1–1 AmaranteLiga 3
- 29 March 2026Amarante 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 22 October 2023Amarante 1–0 AcademicaTaça de Portugal
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Academica carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.27 for Amarante. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Academica and 1.13 for Amarante. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Academica rate 0.69 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amarante rate 0.55 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Academica the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Academica against 1.13 for Amarante. Academica's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.74 for Amarante.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Academica at home · Amarante away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Academica 7, Amarante 7.
Amarante score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Academica have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Academica
- vs Leixoes24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 44%
- at Vizela1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Amarante7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 52%
- at Portimonense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 31%
- vs Torreense30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
Amarante
- at Torreense26 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 16%
- vs FC Porto B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 36%
- at Academica7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Felgueiras 193215 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Sporting CP B30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.