CF Os Belenenses
vs
Arouca
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca
The model makes it 22% CF Os Belenenses, 27% draw, 51% Arouca — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: CF Os Belenenses 0.91, Arouca 1.69.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Arouca are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arouca have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Estrela.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- CF Os Belenenses20%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Arouca55%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca
CF Os Belenenses
No earlier matches on record this season.
Arouca
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Arouca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: CF Os Belenenses and Arouca
CF Os Belenenses
No leading scorers listed yet.
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CF Os Belenenses carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.82 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.91 goals for CF Os Belenenses and 1.69 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Os Belenenses rate 0.54 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.97 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arouca the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.91 expected goals for CF Os Belenenses against 1.69 for Arouca. CF Os Belenenses's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.04 for Arouca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
CF Os Belenenses
No further matches on our board yet.
Arouca
- at Alverca24 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- vs Nacional1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 54%
- at Famalicao6 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Rio Ave28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at SC Braga6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.