Mushuc Runa SC
vs
Orense SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SC
The model makes it 49% Mushuc Runa SC, 25% draw, 26% Orense SC — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mushuc Runa SC 1.93, Orense SC 1.26.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mushuc Runa SC are 11th on 39 points from 32 games; Orense SC are 13th on 34 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Mushuc Runa SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Delfin SC.
- Orense SC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 July 2026, ended Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mushuc Runa SC at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
- L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Deportivo Cuenca20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Guayaquil City FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Leones del Norte8 September 2026
- D0-0away to LDU de Quito2 September 2026
Orense SC
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Manta FC21 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad Catolica Quito15 September 2026
- W4-3Guayaquil City FC8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leones del Norte3 September 2026
What these results say
- Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mushuc Runa SC
Chance to win the league · 66% today
Orense SC
Chance to win the league · 9% today
From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
- 20 July 2026Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 19 March 2026Orense SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 14 September 2025Orense SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 17 May 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–5 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 6 March 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 22 September 2024Mushuc Runa SC 3–0 Orense SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mushuc Runa SC carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.34 for Orense SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Mushuc Runa SC and 1.26 for Orense SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mushuc Runa SC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orense SC rate 0.64 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mushuc Runa SC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC against 1.26 for Orense SC. Mushuc Runa SC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.77 for Orense SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mushuc Runa SC at home · Orense SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Mushuc Runa SC 32, Orense SC 31.
Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Orense SC have let in 7 there.
Orense SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mushuc Runa SC
- at Tecnico Universitario25 Oct · Liga Prowin 37%
- vs Manta FC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 53%
- vs Delfin SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 49%
- at Orense SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs Tecnico Universitario29 Nov · Liga Prowin 54%
Orense SC
- vs Delfin SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 46%
- vs Tecnico Universitario1 Nov · Liga Prowin 50%
- at Deportivo Cuenca8 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Mushuc Runa SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Delfin SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.