Aucas
vs
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Aucas 1–0 LDU de Quito
The model makes it 37% Aucas, 30% draw, 33% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Aucas 1.17, LDU de Quito 1.07.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aucas are 5th on 50 points from 32 games; LDU de Quito are 3rd on 52 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Aucas have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Independiente del Valle.
- LDU de Quito are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Barcelona SC.
- Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 August 2026, ended LDU de Quito 1–0 Aucas.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aucas vs LDU de Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aucas at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Aucas vs LDU de Quito
Aucas
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito3 September 2026
LDU de Quito
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
- W2-1Universidad Catolica Quito20 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cuenca13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Tecnico Universitario5 September 2026
- D0-0Mushuc Runa SC2 September 2026
What these results say
- Aucas did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 50 |
| 3 | LDU de Quito | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aucas vs LDU de Quito
- 26 August 2026LDU de Quito 1–0 AucasCopa Ecuador
- 17 August 2026Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 23 April 2026LDU de Quito 0–0 AucasLiga Pro
- 9 August 2025Aucas 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 18 April 2025LDU de Quito 3–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 17 August 2024Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Aucas and LDU de Quito
Aucas
GoalsAssists
- A. Preciado63
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aucas carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.62 for LDU de Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Aucas and 1.07 for LDU de Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aucas rate 0.65 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; LDU de Quito rate 0.69 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour LDU de Quito, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aucas the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Aucas against 1.07 for LDU de Quito. Aucas's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.11 for LDU de Quito.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aucas at home · LDU de Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Aucas 32, LDU de Quito 32.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Aucas have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aucas
- vs Barcelona SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 36%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 22%
- vs Independiente del Valle8 Nov · Liga Prowin 31%
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- at Barcelona SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 23%
LDU de Quito
- vs Macara25 Oct · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Independiente del Valle1 Nov · Liga Prowin 22%
- at Barcelona SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 27%
- vs Aucas22 Nov · Liga Prowin 47%
- at Macara29 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.