Macara
vs
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Macara 2–1 Independiente del Valle
The model makes it 38% Macara, 24% draw, 38% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Macara 1.86, Independiente del Valle 1.83.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Macara and Independiente del Valle are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Macara are 2nd on 57 points from 32 games; Independiente del Valle are top on 77 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Macara are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aucas.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Independiente del Valle 3–1 Macara.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Macara at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Macara
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Aucas19 September 2026
- W1-0Emelec13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente del Valle5 September 2026
- W4-3Manta FC2 September 2026
Independiente del Valle
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barcelona SC3 September 2026
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito29 August 2026
What these results say
- Macara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macara won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Independiente del Valle had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macara | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 57 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | +41 | 77 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macara vs Independiente del Valle
- 5 September 2026Independiente del Valle 3–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 16 May 2026Macara 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 12 July 2025Macara 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 16 March 2025Independiente del Valle 1–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 24 November 2024Independiente del Valle 7–0 MacaraLiga Pro
- 26 May 2024Macara 0–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Macara and Independiente del Valle
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse135
- A. Campana103
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- D. Reasco94
- C. González90
- M. Perelló83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Macara carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.8 for Independiente del Valle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Macara and 1.83 for Independiente del Valle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Macara rate 0.83 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente del Valle rate 1.18 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente del Valle, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Macara a 0% chance of the title and Independiente del Valle 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macara the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Macara against 1.83 for Independiente del Valle. Macara's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/1.38 for Independiente del Valle.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Macara at home · Independiente del Valle away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Macara 32, Independiente del Valle 31.
Macara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 6 there.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Macara have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Macara
- at LDU de Quito25 Oct · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Barcelona SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 43%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito8 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
- at Independiente del Valle22 Nov · Liga Prowin 22%
- vs LDU de Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
Independiente del Valle
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito25 Oct · Liga Prowin 55%
- vs LDU de Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 55%
- at Aucas8 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
- vs Macara22 Nov · Liga Prowin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.