Lillestrom
vs
Brann
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Lillestrom 2–1 Brann
The model makes it 36% Lillestrom, 28% draw, 36% Brann — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.40, Brann 1.41.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lillestrom and Brann are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Lillestrom are 6th on 33 points from 22 games; Brann are 7th on 29 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Lillestrom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Molde.
- Brann have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Viking.
- Last 6 meetings: Brann 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Brann 1–2 Lillestrom.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Brann
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lillestrom at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Brann
Lillestrom
- D2-2Molde11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Viking20 September 2026
- W2-0Valerenga12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brann5 September 2026
- L1-4Fredrikstad30 August 2026
Brann
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
- W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
- L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lillestrom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lillestrom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lillestrom had three goals or more.
- Brann failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brann conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lillestrom
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Brann
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Brann vs Lillestrom
Brann and Lillestrom have met 6 times in the records we hold, Brann has won 4 of them to Lillestrom's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Lillestrom won the last one 2–1 on 5 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 |
| Lillestrom | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 5 Sep 2026
EliteserienBrann 1–2 Lillestrom - 9 Nov 2024
EliteserienBrann 2–1 Lillestrom - 12 May 2024
EliteserienLillestrom 0–2 Brann - 1 Oct 2023
EliteserienLillestrom 0–2 Brann - 11 Jun 2023
EliteserienBrann 2–2 Lillestrom - 20 May 2023
NM CupenBrann 2–0 Lillestrom
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Brann | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| Lillestrom | 0.66 | 1.22 |
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Brann
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá65
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm63
- K. Ingason62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.66 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Lillestrom and 1.41 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.66 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.81 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,805 correct results out of 3,781 settled predictions (48%), with 379 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.41 for Brann. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.18 for Brann.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lillestrom at home · Brann away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Lillestrom 22, Brann 22.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Brann have let in 7 there.
Brann score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Lillestrom have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lillestrom
- at Start1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 41%
- vs Plzen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
- vs Aalesund8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 49%
Brann
- vs Molde1 Nov · Eliteserienwin 44%
- at St. Truiden5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.