Regular Season - 24 · 18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Valerenga vs Brann Eliteserien prediction

Intility Arena, Oslo

Our model says: Valerenga 1–2 Brann

The model makes it 34% Valerenga, 24% draw, 42% Brann — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Valerenga 1.65, Brann 1.90.

Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Brann: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Valerenga are 13th on 23 points from 22 games; Brann are 7th on 29 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
  • Valerenga have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to KFUM Oslo.
  • Brann have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Viking.
  • Last 6 meetings: Brann 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Brann 2–3 Valerenga.

More Eliteserien predictions

All Eliteserien predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Valerenga vs Brann

69%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Valerenga win Draw Brann win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–35%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Valerenga first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 52%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brann at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Valerenga vs Brann

Valerenga

  • L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
  • D1-1Fredrikstad20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Lillestrom12 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF6 September 2026
  • L3-4Molde30 August 2026

Brann

  • L0-2Viking9 October 2026
  • W2-1Bodo/Glimt20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Start13 September 2026
  • L1-2Lillestrom5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Sandefjord30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Valerenga did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Brann failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Brann conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Who is missing for Valerenga vs Brann

Valerenga

  • M. Westergaardsuspended (yellow cards)
  • K. TshiembeinjuryDoubtful

Brann

  • K. Kjartanssonknee injury
  • N. Boakyeknee injury
  • S. Opsahlfoot injury
  • S. Tronstadinactive
  • U. Mathisenfoot injury
  • E. GudmundssoninjuryDoubtful
  • L. Cornicleg injuryDoubtful
  • N. CastroinjuryDoubtful

From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Valerenga2265113545-1023
7Brann2292113934+529

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Valerenga

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today

Win 21%
Draw 37%
Defeat 46%

Brann

Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today

Win 10%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Brann

  • 26 July 2026Brann 2–3 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 13 September 2025Brann 3–2 ValerengaEliteserien
  • 3 May 2025Valerenga 2–4 BrannEliteserien
  • 22 March 2025Brann 2–1 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 February 2024Brann 3–0 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 October 2023Valerenga 1–2 BrannEliteserien

Leading scorers: Valerenga and Brann

Valerenga

GoalsAssists

  • L. Haren82
  • C. Lange61

Brann

GoalsAssists

  • N. Holm63
  • K. Ingason62

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.66 for Brann. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Valerenga and 1.90 for Brann. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Valerenga rate 0.78 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brann rate 0.81 and 1.18.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Brann the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Valerenga against 1.90 for Brann. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.18 for Brann.

Season stats

ValerengaBrann
22Matches22
6W 5D 11LRecord9W 2D 11L
35 1.6 per gameGoals scored39 1.8 per game
45 2.0 per gameGoals conceded34 1.5 per game
2 of 22Clean sheets3 of 22
7 of 22Failed to score4 of 22
0 of 2Penalties scored3 of 4
44 2.0 per gameYellow cards38 1.7 per game
3Red cards1
4-4-2 20×Usual shape4-3-3 19×

Valerenga at home · Brann away

11Played10
4W 2D 5LRecord3W 2D 5L
20–19Goals for – against19–16
1 of 11Clean sheets2 of 10

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Valerenga 22, Brann 22.

Valerenga scored 468358
Brann conceded 767437
Brann scored 3510479
Valerenga conceded 7997311

Brann score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Valerenga have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Valerenga

Brann

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.