Daejeon Citizen
vs
Gwangju FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Gwangju FC
The model makes it 64% Daejeon Citizen, 20% draw, 16% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 2.56, Gwangju FC 1.07.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Daejeon Citizen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Daejeon Citizen are 6th on 43 points from 31 games; Gwangju FC are bottom on 18 points from 31 games — K League 1.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Gwangju FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Ulsan Hyundai FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
Daejeon Citizen
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United20 September 2026
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
Gwangju FC
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026
What these results say
- Daejeon Citizen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 48 | 38 | +10 | 43 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 66 | -41 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Daejeon Citizen
Chance to finish in the top four · 37% today
From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
- 2 August 2026Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 May 2026Gwangju FC 0–5 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 17 August 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 22 June 2025Gwangju FC 2–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 29 March 2025Daejeon Citizen 1–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 November 2024Gwangju FC 0–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.21 for Gwangju FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.07 for Gwangju FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.88 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gwangju FC rate 0.57 and 2.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.07 for Gwangju FC. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.05 for Gwangju FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Daejeon Citizen at home · Gwangju FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Daejeon Citizen 31, Gwangju FC 31.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Gwangju FC have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Daejeon Citizen
- at Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 Oct · K League 1win 42%
- vs Vissel Kobe27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 47%
- at Kashiwa Reysol3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 55%
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
Gwangju FC
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.