Regular Season - 32 · 18 October 2026, 05:00 UTC

Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction

Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonju

Our model says: Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Jeju United FC

The model makes it 39% Jeonbuk Motors, 31% draw, 30% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.19, Jeju United FC 0.99.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Low.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Jeonbuk Motors are 5th on 44 points from 31 games; Jeju United FC are 4th on 46 points from 31 games — K League 1.
  • Jeonbuk Motors are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Daejeon Citizen.
  • Jeju United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Seoul.
  • Last 6 meetings: Jeju United FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Jeonbuk Motors 1–3 Jeju United FC.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC

45%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jeonbuk Motors win Draw Jeju United FC win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Jeonbuk Motors first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 28%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jeonbuk Motors at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC

Jeonbuk Motors

  • L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen9 October 2026
  • D2-2Gwangju FC20 September 2026
  • L1-2FC Seoul12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gangwon FC9 September 2026
  • W2-0Pohang Steelers5 September 2026

Jeju United FC

  • L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
  • D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Jeonbuk Motors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jeonbuk Motors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeonbuk Motors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Jeonbuk Motors31111193930+944
4Jeju United FC31121093631+546

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jeonbuk Motors

Chance to finish in the top four · 44% today

Win 78%
Draw 34%
Defeat 7%

Jeju United FC

Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today

Win 96%
Draw 60%
Defeat 25%

From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC

  • 8 August 2026Jeonbuk Motors 1–3 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 2 May 2026Jeju United FC 0–2 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 3 October 2025Jeju United FC 1–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 23 May 2025Jeju United FC 0–0 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 13 April 2025Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 27 October 2024Jeju United FC 1–0 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1

Leading scorers: Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC

Jeonbuk Motors

GoalsAssists

  • Tiago Orobó60
  • Lee Seung-Woo43

Jeju United FC

GoalsAssists

  • Lee Kun-Hee41
  • Matheus Aiás32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.53 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.68 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.65 and 1.24.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeju United FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jeonbuk Motors the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.24 for Jeju United FC.

Season stats

Jeonbuk MotorsJeju United FC
31Matches31
11W 11D 9LRecord12W 10D 9L
39 1.3 per gameGoals scored36 1.2 per game
30 1.0 per gameGoals conceded31 1.0 per game
13 of 31Clean sheets11 of 31
7 of 31Failed to score7 of 31
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
61 2.0 per gameYellow cards55 1.8 per game
0Red cards3
4-2-3-1 26×Usual shape4-4-2 15×

Jeonbuk Motors at home · Jeju United FC away

15Played14
7W 3D 5LRecord7W 3D 4L
23–17Goals for – against18–13
7 of 15Clean sheets5 of 14

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Jeonbuk Motors 31, Jeju United FC 31.

Jeonbuk Motors scored 4397214
Jeju United FC conceded 236757

Jeonbuk Motors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Jeju United FC have let in 7 there.

Jeju United FC scored 377569
Jeonbuk Motors conceded 443828

Jeju United FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Jeonbuk Motors have let in 8 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Jeonbuk Motors

Jeju United FC

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.