- Lusitânia Lourosa — 17 points from 7 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost), 12 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: D W W W D.
- Sporting CP B — 15 points from 7 played (5 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L W W L W.
- Farense — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 13 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: D L D W W.
- Penafiel — 13 points from 7 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 14 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
- Benfica B — 13 points from 7 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D L L W W.
- Academica — 12 points from 7 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L L L W.
- Tondela — 12 points from 7 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L L W W W.
- Vizela — 11 points from 7 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D W W D L.
- União de Leiria — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W W D L.
- Leixoes — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 9 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W W D L.
- Portimonense — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 6 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D L L L W.
- AVS — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: D W L D W.
- FC Porto B — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 6 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: W L L D W.
- Felgueiras 1932 — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 5 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D W L L L.
- Torreense — 6 points from 7 played (1 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D L W D L.
- Amarante — 5 points from 7 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 6 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D W L D L.
- Chaves — 5 points from 7 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 6 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D L W L D.
- Feirense — 1 points from 7 played (0 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 2 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L L L L.
What moved
Measured against 2026-10-12, the last update whose numbers changed —
not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried
forward rather than restamped. 18 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.
- Felgueiras 1932 — chance of finishing top down 0.3, to 0.1%; bottom-three risk up 8.7, to 28.4%.
- Feirense — bottom-three risk down 5.7, to 79.3%.
- Benfica B — chance of finishing top up 4.8, to 14.8%; bottom-three risk down 1, to 0.8%.
- Vizela — chance of finishing top down 0.3, to 0.7%; bottom-three risk down 3, to 10.6%.
- AVS — chance of finishing top down 0.5, to 9.3%; bottom-three risk down 2.2, to 1.2%.
Season projection
Every one of the 243 matches this phase has left,
played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each
side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a
title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those
depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-12, the last update whose numbers changed.
- Benfica B — projected to finish on 57.2 points, from 13 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 14.8% (up 4.8), finishes top three 39.2%, bottom three 0.8%.
- Lusitânia Lourosa — projected to finish on 56.1 points, from 17 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.6% (down 0.6), finishes top three 34.7%, bottom three 1%.
- Tondela — projected to finish on 55.9 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 14.7% (down 0.9), finishes top three 36%, bottom three 1.6%.
- Farense — projected to finish on 55.5 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.9% (down 1.1), finishes top three 33%, bottom three 0.7%.
- Penafiel — projected to finish on 55 points, from 13 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 12.6% (up 0.5), finishes top three 33.3%, bottom three 2.1%.
- AVS — projected to finish on 54.5 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 9.3% (down 0.5), finishes top three 27.9%, bottom three 1.2%.
- Sporting CP B — projected to finish on 54.2 points, from 15 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 8.8% (down 2.2), finishes top three 26.7%, bottom three 1.6%.
- Torreense — projected to finish on 53.2 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.4% (up 0.5), finishes top three 22.7%, bottom three 2.1%.
- Academica — projected to finish on 47.9 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.4%, finishes top three 10.4%, bottom three 8.1%.
- Leixoes — projected to finish on 47.3 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.6% (up 0.2), finishes top three 10.7%, bottom three 9.1%.
- União de Leiria — projected to finish on 46.4 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.1% (down 0.1), finishes top three 8.7%, bottom three 10.4%.
- FC Porto B — projected to finish on 45.2 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.2%, finishes top three 6.3%, bottom three 13.6%.
- Vizela — projected to finish on 44.8 points, from 11 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7% (down 0.3), finishes top three 4.3%, bottom three 10.6%.
- Portimonense — projected to finish on 43.2 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (down 0.1), finishes top three 4.1%, bottom three 17%.
- Felgueiras 1932 — projected to finish on 39.9 points, from 6 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.3), finishes top three 1.7%, bottom three 28.4%.
- Amarante — projected to finish on 34.1 points, from 5 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.2%, bottom three 53.1%.
- Chaves — projected to finish on 33.2 points, from 5 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0%, bottom three 59.4%.
- Feirense — projected to finish on 27.8 points, from 1 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top three 0.1%, bottom three 79.3%.
Top scorers
- Mauro Couto (Sporting CP B) — 0 goals, 1 assist.
- Dudu (Portimonense) — 0 goals.
- Luís Gomes (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Tiago Andrade (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Diogo Ferreira (Benfica B) — 0 goals.
- Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira (Benfica B) — 0 goals.
- G. Sousa (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Gabriel Silva (Sporting CP B) — 0 goals.
- Eduardo Felicíssimo (Sporting CP B) — 0 goals.
- Rui Silva (Benfica B) — 0 goals.
- J. Afonso (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Eirik Granaas (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- M. Figueiredo (Benfica B) — 0 goals.
- T. Silva (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Duarte Cunha (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- Bernardo Lima (FC Porto B) — 0 goals.
- A. Cabral (Benfica B) — 0 goals.
Segunda Liga: how many points for the top three?
Chance by final points total · 15 October 2026
59 points has been enough in half of the simulations, 63 in nine out of ten.
64 pts98%
62 pts90%
60 pts72%
58 pts45%
56 pts20%
54 pts5%
050%100%
The top three go into the Promotion to Liga Portugal zone.
Segunda Liga: how many points to stay up?
Chance by final points total · 15 October 2026
34 points has been enough in half of the simulations, 38 in nine out of ten.
42 pts~100%
39 pts97%
36 pts80%
33 pts47%
30 pts17%
27 pts4%
050%100%
The bottom three are in the relegation zone.