Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Bucaramanga 2-0 Internacional de Bogota.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Bucaramanga, 27% draw, 21% Internacional de Bogota — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. FiermarinG
- 19A. GutierrezD
- 24J. OrtizD
- 23C. RomanaD
- 4J. GarciaD
- 8F. HinestrozaD
- 22FabryM
- 21F. CharrupiM
- 17E. BatallaM
- 11J. SalazarF
- 27L. PonsF
- 12D. NovoaG
- 3M. ReaD
- 18E. LargachaD
- 30V. CantilloM
- 28L. FloresM
- 7K. LondonoM
- 32N. RamirezM
- 9B. CaicedoF
- 5A. MurriloF
- 1W. FarinezG
- 23J. CaballeroD
- 20J. CastroD
- 2C. VivasD
- 13M. PerniaD
- 16Y. A. Gomez MosqueraD
- 11C. DajomeM
- 8D. S. Victoria PalaciosM
- 5L. VasquezM
- 10F. BoneM
- 7F. SanguinettiF
- 33K. CatanoG
- 6M. Angel Amaya Pena
- 24R. ManjarresM
- 14M. SantamariaM
- 32J. Palomeque
- 9D. DuarteF
- 25R. JulioF
- 19Y. GarciaF
- 18E. ArboledaF
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota
Bucaramanga
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
Internacional de Bogota
- L2-3Atletico Nacional17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Internacional de Bogota
- 20 September 2026Bucaramanga 2–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 14 March 2026Internacional de Bogota 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 9 November 2025Bucaramanga 2–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 17 May 2025Internacional de Bogota 1–4 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 28 September 2024Internacional de Bogota 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 16 March 2024Bucaramanga 4–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Internacional de Bogota
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti97
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.